New Zealand v South Africa Rugby Championship preview & top picks

New Zealand and South Africa meet in Round 3 of the 2025 Rugby Championship in Auckland this Saturday, and online sportsbooks have the All Blacks as narrow favorites.

Top sports betting sites have listed New Zealand at -192.31 to win, while the Springboks sit at +145 as they chase a first victory at Eden Park since 1937. The All Blacks enter the match on the back of a tough loss in Buenos Aires, yet they remain unbeaten in 50 straight Tests in Auckland.

Captain Scott Barrett leads a reshuffled lineup featuring scrum-half Finlay Christie, powerhouse No.8 Wallace Sititi, and Ardie Savea, who celebrates his 100th Test. The backline is stacked with Beauden Barrett at fly-half, Jordie Barrett and Billy Proctor in midfield, and finishing class from Will Jordan and Emoni Narawa.

For South Africa, head coach Rassie Erasmus has recalled lock Eben Etzebeth and shifted Siya Kolisi to No.8, with Pieter-Steph du Toit and Marco van Staden rounding out a powerful back row. Handré Pollard returns to steer the attack at fly-half, Willie le Roux slots back in at fullback, and Jesse Kriel captains the side in his 83rd Test.

The Springboks have won the last four meetings between these rivals, including the 2023 Rugby World Cup final, but New Zealand’s fortress record at Eden Park looms large. With nine of the last 14 contests decided by six points or fewer, another tight finish is expected.

New Zealand v South Africa Round 3 lineups

New Zealand starting XV

15 Will Jordan
14 Emoni Narawa
13 Billy Proctor
12 Jordie Barrett
11 Rieko Ioane
10 Beauden Barrett
9 Finlay Christie
8 Wallace Sititi
7 Ardie Savea
6 Simon Parker
5 Tupou Vaa’i
4 Scott Barrett (C)
3 Fletcher Newell
2 Codie Taylor
1 Ethan de Groot

Bench: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tamaiti Williams, Tyrel Lomax, Fabian Holland, Du’Plessis Kirifi, Kyle Preston, Quinn Tupaea, Damian McKenzie

South Africa starting XV

15 Willie le Roux
14 Cheslin Kolbe
13 Jesse Kriel (C)
12 Damian de Allende
11 Canan Moodie
10 Handré Pollard
9 Grant Williams
8 Siya Kolisi
7 Pieter-Steph du Toit
6 Marco van Staden
5 Ruan Nortje
4 Eben Etzebeth
3 Thomas du Toit
2 Malcolm Marx
1 Ox Nche

Bench: Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Boan Venter, Wilco Louw, Lood de Jager, Kwagga Smith, Cobus Reinach, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Ethan Hooker

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All Blacks v Springboks betting predictions

New Zealand by 1–12 points

The Springboks’ defense has kept New Zealand to one try or fewer in three of the last four meetings, and nine of the last 14 clashes have been decided by six points or less. The All Blacks’ Eden Park streak should hold, but it won’t be easy. The 1–12 margin at +170 with the top rugby betting sites.

Under 49.5 total points

Both sides are built for physical contests and kick-heavy territory battles. With two world-class defenses and goal-kicking fly-halves, this shapes as another grind rather than a shootout. The under 49.5 at -111.11 odds with BetOnline .