NFL Week 4 betting preview, predictions & parlay picks

Week 4 of the NFL season arrives with clearer trends and some intriguing travel quirks — including a neutral-site clash in Dublin.

From Thursday’s divisional duel in the desert to a Monday night double-header, we’ve broken down every game with one confident betting pick per matchup.

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Thursday, September 25 – 5:15pm MST – State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Seattle’s offense has clicked into gear the last couple of weeks, while Arizona games have trended higher with red-zone defenses under pressure. Indoors in Glendale, both teams should finish more drives and keep the scoreboard moving. The total looks a touch low for this rivalry.

Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, September 28 – 2:30pm IST – Croke Park, Dublin, Ireland

Both sides have been in tight finishes this season, but Pittsburgh have closed games better and leaned on a defense that travels. On a neutral field with margins slim, the Steelers’ recent consistency tips this their way at plus money.

Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, September 28 – 1pm ET – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Washington have played tidier football — fewer giveaways, fewer penalties at the wrong time — and that discipline shows up in their fourth-quarter results. Atlanta have moved the ball in patches but stalled in the red zone, leaving behind points that matter in one-score finishes. If Washington keep turnovers low, they’re set up to knick another road win.

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills

Sunday, September 28 – 1:00pm ET – Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Buffalo’s recent form at home has been ruthless: quick scoring bursts, short fields off special teams, and a defense that squeezes you when you chase. The Saints have opened things up a bit, but this matchup tilts heavily toward the Bills in pace, physicality, and finish. If Buffalo get rolling around halftime like they’ve been doing, this has every chance to turn lopsided.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Sunday, September 28 – 12pm CT – NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Houston have been measured but effective, winning the middle of the field and trusting their defense to tighten in the red zone. Tennessee’s attack has produced too many drives ending in threes instead of sevens, which has cost them late. In a matchup that profiles as low-variance, the Texans’ habit of closing out one-score games at home becomes the edge.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants

Sunday, September 28 – 1pm ET – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Los Angeles have started faster and finished better than New York in recent weeks, building early leads and leaning on a pass rush that disrupts rhythm. The Giants have struggled on third downs and in the red zone, making late backdoor points less likely. If the Chargers control field position early again, they should cover this handicap easily.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, September 28 – 1pm ET – Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Philadelphia have been in a string of close games, but they’re winning and closing them out with sharp fourth-quarter execution and control at the line of scrimmage. Tampa Bay have competed, yet sustaining long drives against this front has been tough. With the Eagles’ late-game poise and situational discipline, a short road spread remains very manageable.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots

Sunday, September 28 – 1pm ET – Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Carolina have struggled for consistency on both sides of the ball, with too many stalled drives and limited scoring pressure on the road. New England have been more disciplined at home and should handle the key moments, particularly in a lower-scoring script where field position matters. The hosts are well placed to win by a manageable margin.

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions

Sunday, September 28 – 1pm ET – Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Detroit have stacked strong home performances, and after a big upset win against the Ravens, they’re rolling. Cleveland’s form has been patchy on the road, and their offense has struggled to finish drives against better fronts. In the dome, the Lions’ tempo and efficiency can snowball — if they grab an early lead, the margin can blow out late.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, September 28 – 1:05pm PT – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

Los Angeles have been consistent through four quarters, limiting freebies and taking points when they’re there. Indianapolis have shown bursts but still carry a few self-inflicted wounds in big spots. The Rams’ recent red-zone discipline and late-half management give them the home edge. Back the cleaner side to see it out.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, September 28 – 1:05pm PT – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

San Francisco’s defense is a weekly test, yet Jacksonville have kept themselves in tough games by staying balanced on early downs. That approach limits negative plays and gives them a late cover path even if they trail. With special teams steady and a reliable two-minute drill, the Jags can keep this within a field goal.

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, September 28 – 1:25pm PT – Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

Chicago’s last couple of performances have shown better drive sustain and fewer empty possessions. Las Vegas have struggled to find rhythm, particularly when playing from behind. If the Bears keep turnovers down, their balanced script travels and gives them the late-game edge. The price on the road moneyline remains fair.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, September 28 – 3:25pm CT – Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Both teams haven’t been at their best to start the season, but Baltimore’s slide stands out after an unacceptable loss to the Lions last week. Kansas City have had their own lulls, yet Arrowhead remains a difficult place to steady yourself, and the Chiefs typically execute better in late-game situations at home. The market leans toward KC keeping this inside a field goal or winning outright.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, September 28 – 7:20pm CT – AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Dallas enter off a heavy defeat to Chicago and now must navigate major injuries on both sides of the ball. Star wideout CeeDee Lamb suffered a high-ankle sprain against the Bears and is expected to miss several weeks, while All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland has been dealing with a foot injury. If Green Bay control first and second down again, they can force Dallas into chase mode and stretch the margin late.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Monday, September 29 – 7:15pm ET – Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Miami are still chasing their first win, but they showed real fight pushing Buffalo deep into the game and looked sharper on both sides of the ball. Back at home, this is a strong chance to convert improvement into a result against a Jets team that’s been inconsistent week to week. If the Dolphins limit turnovers and keep drives on schedule, they should control the key moments and close this one out.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos

Monday, September 29 – 6:15pm MT – Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

Cincinnati struggled last week without Joe Burrow, and the ripple effect was obvious across the offense. Ja’Marr Chase has been bang average to start the season, and without his starting QB it’s even harder for the Bengals to generate explosive plays or sustain drives. Denver’s defense has tightened at home, and the altitude typically wears on visiting offenses in the fourth quarter. If the Broncos control tempo again, they’re well placed to see this out by a touchdown or more.

NFL Week 4 parlay picks

• Over 42.5 (Seahawks v Cardinals)
• Steelers to win
• Commanders to win
• Over 47.5 (Saints v Bills)
• Texans by 1–13 pts
• Chargers -6.5
• Eagles -2.5
• Patriots by 1–13 pts
• Lions 14+
• Rams to win
• Jaguars +3.5
• Bears to win
• Chiefs +3.5
• Packers by 14+ pts
• Dolphins to win
• Broncos -7.5