NRL Finals Week 1 betting tips & predictions for every game

The 2025 NRL finals kick off this weekend as eight teams continue their push for premiership glory.

With proven contenders like the Storm and Panthers clashing with surging sides like the Bulldogs and Warriors, and with the Roosters, Broncos, and Raiders all poised for playoff upsets, Week 1 promises exciting action and plenty of betting opportunities with the top sports betting sites.

Here’s our full rugby league betting preview with expert picks and best plays for all four games this weekend.

Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Friday, September 12 – 7:50pm AEST – AAMI Park, Melbourne

The Storm enter their home final missing two key stars, Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen, but still boast a strong spine and plenty of playoff experience. Tyran Wishart partners Cameron Munster in the halves, while Harry Grant returns at hooker to direct the attack. Melbourne’s structure, discipline, and dominance at AAMI Park remain major advantages despite late-season struggles.

The Bulldogs are hunting an upset behind playmakers Matt Burton and Lachlan Galvin. They’ve reshuffled the backline due to injuries, but their fearless approach makes them dangerous. Connor Tracey’s steady play at fullback has added stability, and with Viliame Kikau leading a mobile forward pack, the Dogs are every chance to rattle the Storm.

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers

Saturday, September 13 – 6:05pm NZST – Go Media Stadium, Auckland

The Warriors will rely on their home crowd and emotional edge in this elimination showdown. The return of Wayde Egan and Jackson Ford strengthens their middle defense, while Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad bring strike power out wide. If Chanel Harris-Tavita controls tempo early, the Wahs can push Penrith to the wire.

The Panthers arrive as favorites despite finishing seventh, armed with unmatched playoff pedigree. Nathan Cleary’s leadership and game management remain elite, and the return of Dylan Edwards and Brian To’o sharpens their attack. Expect Ivan Cleary’s side to dictate territory and tempo, though Auckland’s cauldron could make this one closer than the line suggests.

Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters

Saturday, September 13 – 7:50pm AEST – Sharks Stadium, Sydney

The Sharks earned a top-five finish, but questions linger about their ability to beat elite opposition in big games. Nicho Hynes returns to steer the halves alongside Braydon Trindall, with Jesse Ramien and Ronaldo Mulitalo adding strike power on the edges. Cronulla’s 10-2 home record gives them hope of standing tall under finals pressure.

The Roosters are on fire, winning five of their last six, with their attack peaking at the right time. Sam Walker has transformed their offensive shape, James Tedesco looks back to his best, and Mark Nawaqanitawase brings flair out wide. With the league’s most efficient red-zone offense, Sydney holds the edge when it comes to seizing big-game moments.

Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos

Sunday, September 14 – 4:05pm AEST – GIO Stadium, Canberra

The Raiders topped the ladder and now get home-field advantage against a Broncos side missing their skipper. With Josh Papalii named and Jamal Fogarty running the show, Canberra’s pack power and ruck control are their foundation. Matt Timoko and Seb Kris provide attacking punch, and in chilly Canberra conditions, Ricky Stuart’s team will be tough to beat.

The Broncos remain dangerous even without Adam Reynolds. Ben Hunt and Billy Walters have clicked in the halves, creating more room for Reece Walsh to attack. Payne Haas and Pat Carrigan continue to dominate up front, and if Brisbane can control tempo, their outside backs will have chances. Walsh is the X-factor who could flip this game on its head.

NRL Finals Week 1 multi picks

• Bulldogs to win
• Warriors +9.5
• Roosters -2.5
• Raiders -3.5