Nunes vs Pena UFC 269 betting picks & top odds – 11/12/2021

Amanda Nunes will put her 12-fight win streak on the line this Saturday night when she defends her UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship against Julianna Pena. Nunes will be a massive favorite in the co-main event of UFC 269 leading into the main event of Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier.

Nunes vs Pena matchup analysis

Amanda Nunes (21-4-0) is the undisputed greatest women’s MMA fighter in history. Across her current 12-fight win streak she has claimed both the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship and the UFC Women’s Featherweight Championship and has recorded seven successful title defenses. Nunes is a well-rounded fighter that can win with quick finishes or in grind-out fights and just doesn’t have any noticeable weaknesses. And at just 33 years old, there’s no obvious end in sight to her dominance.

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Julianna Pena (10-4-0) is a somewhat odd choice for a title fight considering she is just 2-2 over her last two bouts. But with no other contenders that Nunes hasn’t already beaten in the pipeline, Pena gets her shot after winning her last fight against Sara McMann via submission. Prior to that victory, each of Pena’s previous three wins had come by decision.

Nunes vs Pena betting predictions

Julianna Pena averages 2.49 takedowns per minute and is at her best when grappling. This will clearly be the game plan against Amanda Nunes, as the champion is a viscous striker that will have a very clear edge when the fight is standing and the two are trading blows. The problem for Pena is that Nunes is comfortable grappling too; she has recorded 14 takedowns over her last three fights, and each of Pena’s last two losses have come via submission. Nunes scored a submission win in her last fight against Megan Anderson.

All elite champions eventually hit a wall and lose their edge. It’s impossible to know when that day will come for Nunes, but it seems quite unlikely it will be this Saturday. Pena just doesn’t possess the elite submission skills or the knockout power to catch Nunes with anything that would lead to a stunning upset. Anything is possible in combat sports, but the only real question here is how Nunes will win, not if she will win. We’ll take a shot on the champion defending with another submission victory.