Pavlovich v Aspinall UFC 295 picks & predictions – Nov 11, 2023

The interim heavyweight crown will be up for grabs when knockout artists Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall square off in UFC 295 at Madison Square Garden in New York. Both men can finish any opponent with a single strike, and fight fans will be glued to their screens from the opening bell.

Sergei Pavlovich v Tom Aspinall UFC 295 fight preview

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall

Sergei Pavlovich (19-1-0) is a wild brawler with five successive round-one KO finishes to his name. The Russian employs an uncomplicated method: he shows no fear and marches relentlessly forward while throwing huge punches until something lands. While this strategy is entirely predictable, his latest opponents have been unable to weather the Pavlovich storm and found themselves staring at the ceiling.

Given the strength of his striking, Pavlovich rarely fights on the mat. He appears to possess a strong wrestling base but may need to be cautious against an athlete with a vastly superior ground game. Rushing forward may open takedown opportunities for his opponent, who has an exceptional BJJ skillset and an array of submission options.

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Tom Aspinall (13-3-0) suffered a horrific knee injury in the opening seconds of his fight against Curtis Blaydes in July 2022. The 30-year-old bounced straight back to form with an early stoppage over Marcin Tybura and appears ready to reach the top of the heavyweight pile. The Brit accepted this bout on short notice after the injury to Jon Jones, but he should be ready for the sport’s biggest stage.

Aspinall is deceptively quick for a large man, and his footwork might be the deciding factor here. He will need to slide in and out of range against a heavy puncher and move laterally around the cage to thwart the frontal attacks of the Russian. He should be able to exploit Pavlovich’s forward momentum with throws and trips that take the action to the ground.

Sergei Pavlovich v Tom Aspinall betting strategy

This appears to be a favourable matchup for the narrow favourite. If Aspinall can survive the opening exchanges without getting dragged into a slugfest, he should be able to score a takedown that swings the fight in his favour. His light and bouncy style can keep him out of harm’s way and give him the time and space to impose his game plan.

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