San Francisco vs. Minnesota Week 1 betting pick – NFL odds & tips

Betting Line: Vikings -6 at Bovada
Over/Under: 46 points at Bovada

In the opening week of the 2018/19 NFL season, the Vikings host the 49ers in a game in which all eyes will be on the quarterbacks.

For the 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo makes his first start since signing a huge contract in the off-season. He played five games last season for San Francisco after coming over in a trade with the Patriots and led the 49ers to five wins. However, San Francisco lost their top right-back, its defence has issues, and the wide receiver corps is good, but not great.

The Vikings made the NFC Championship game last season and were crushed by the Eagles. In the off-season they opened the bank vault to sign Kirk Cousins. In the last three seasons Minnesota had 51 passing touchdowns, while Cousins had 81 in that time with the Washington Redskins. He has the weapons and also joins a team that had the NFL’s best defense last season.

Cousins has grabbed all the headlines for the Vikes, but the defense is still the strength of the team. Last season they were tops in the league only allowing an average of 15.8 ppg and they were even better at home giving up an average of only 12.5 ppg.

Last season the 49ers were 9-7 ATS and they had an Over/Under record of 8-8 and the Vikings were 11-7 ATS and they had an Over/Under record of 9-9.

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The 49ers and Vikings have not met since the 2015 season.

Garoppolo did play well in his limited time with San Francisco last season, but the team lost leading rusher Carlos Hyde and the RB situation is an issue. Jerick McKinnon was lost for the season with a knee injury and the team did bring in Alfred Morris, who has not been a legit #1 RB in the last couple of seasons. He will team up with Matt Breida, who is the leading returning back rushing for 465 yards last season.

San Fran made a few moves to improve the defense as well and the team is hoping those moves pay off. Last season the 49ers ranked 22nd in the league in both pass and run defense.

Cousins comes into a solid situation with the Vikings with an already established team. The defense is a beast and he has a great WR tandem to work with in Adam Thielen (1,276 yards 4 TD in 2017) and Stefon Diggs (849 yards 8 TD). Dalvin Cook averaged 4.8 yards per carry in his rookie season in four games before suffering a season-ending knee injury. He is back and healthy and will share the duties in the backfield with Latavius Murray, who rushed for 842 yards last season.

San Francisco betting trends

• SF is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
• SF is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Week 1 games
• SF is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
• SF has an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 Week 1 games
• In the last 6 games between these teams the Under record is 5-1.

Minnesota betting trends

• MINN is 42-19 ATS in their last 61 games
• MINN is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games
• MINN has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games
• The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 games between these teams

49ers vs. Vikings betting prediction

Both quarterbacks will have a good match, but the Vikings’ defence will make some plays and that will be the difference.

This will be a pretty close game, but at home and with Cousins and the Minnesota defence each playing well, the Vikings are the betting pick in this NFC match up.

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