Serie A 2021/22 Matchweek 18 preview & best value bets

Two top-six matchups highlight the Serie A betting card for Matchweek 18 as AC Milan hosts Napoli and Atalanta hosts AS Roma. These two matches and the first-versus-last game of Inter Milan on the road against Salernitana are featured as this weekend’s Serie A best bets.

Salernitana vs Inter Milan

Inter Milan (12-4-1) is in first place in Serie A with a 7-2-0 record over its last nine games that includes a current five match winning streak. The Nerazzurri have outscored their opponents 11-0 over their last four matches and have won all of those matches by at least two goals. Salernitana (2-2-13) is in last place with an 0-1-6 record over its last seven matches. The Granata have been outscored 15-1 over their last seven matches and have lost five of their last six matches by at least two goals.

How is Internazionale only a two-goal favorite against the spread here? Going on both recent form and season-long form, it seems like the absolute best-case scenario for Salernitana would be a 2-0 loss. Considering the skill gap between the two clubs, a 3-0 or 4-0 loss seems even more likely. And coming off of a 4-0 win over Cagliari and facing an easy home game at Torino next week, there’s no reason for Inter to have a let-down performance here. This one seems clear enough.

Atalanta vs AS Roma

Atalanta (11-4-2) is playing like a team that could win the Serie A championship this season. Since opening the season with a pedestrian 3-2-2 record, the Bergamo club is 8-2-0 over its last 10 games and 6-0-0 over its last six. That stretch of wins includes road upsets over Napoli and Juventus.

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AS Roma (9-1-7) snapped a two-match losing streak on Monday with a 2-0 win at home over lowly Spezia. Roma has done most of its damage at home this season with a 6-1-2 record; on the road, the sixth-placed club is just 3-0-5 thus far in 2021-22. Despite their recent dominance, Atalanta continues to be priced far longer than its fellow elite counterparts in Serie A, and this weekend is no exception as a modest -128 favorite at home in this spot. We’ll keep rolling with Atalanta until the team gives us a reason not to.

AC Milan vs Napoli

Napoli (11-3-3) has slipped all the way down to fourth place in the Serie A standings due to a 1-1-3 skid over its last five matches. Losses to strong sides like Inter and Atalanta are forgivable, but the 2-2 draw against Sassuolo and last Sunday’s 1-0 loss at home to Empoli are head-scratchers. Prior to these struggles, Napoli had gone 10-2-0 over its first 12 matches and looked like a club that was going to be in contention for first place throughout the season.

Like Napoli, AC Milan (12-3-2) hit a skid after a 10-2-0 start, dropping back-to-back games to Fiorentina and Sassuolo. But the club quickly got back on track with a 2-1-0 record over its last three matches. This just doesn’t feel like a game that Napoli can win right now in its current form; a draw isn’t out of the question, but we’ll take the home side in this one.