Tuivasa v Tybura UFC preview & betting picks | March 16, 2024

Heavyweights Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tyrbura headline the latest UFC Fight Night at the Apex in Las Vegas. With current champ Jon Jones sidelined through injury and interim titleholder Tom Aspinall biding his time, an impressive showing can catapult Tuivasa or Tybura into a contender slot. The duration of this bout might determine the winner, so read on for our breakdown and fight pick.

Tai Tuivasa v Marcin Tybura UFC fight preview

Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura

Tai Tuivasa (15-6-0) has hit the skids in recent times with three straight stoppage losses since September 2022. This run of bad form followed a golden period for the Aussie that included five knockout wins. The 30-year-old is a stand-and-trade brawler — an approach that comes with great risk, especially when the reflexes dull slightly and the career damage begins to accumulate.

Tuivasa has taken a six-month break to heal up from his punishment at the hands of Alexander Volkov, Sergei Pavlovich, and Ciryl Gane. He should be fresher and more focused for this assignment after a hectic period of activity during 2021 and 2022. He would be wise to temper the march-forward style that served him well during the win streak but has now become more of a liability.

Marcin Tybura (24-8-0) is coming off a quick TKO loss to current interim heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall following an impressive three years that yielded seven wins and a single loss. The Pole lacks the devastating power of his opponent but arguably possesses a more rounded game, with six professional wins via submission and nine via the scorecards. The 38-year-old should have an advantage the longer this fight lasts given his superior cardio and ground game.

Tybura’s three-inch reach advantage should allow him to establish a favourable early jabbing range. He will need to circle away from the dangerous right hand of Tuivasa. The Australian employs a kickboxing style that operates in linear attacks, and if Tybura is caught going straight backwards, he risks being another KO victim. If he can jab, circle, win the range war, and threaten with takedowns, he should emerge with the spoils.

Tuivasa v Tybura UFC betting predictions

Tuivasa has been installed as the slight favourite by UFC betting sites, but we are leaning toward the underdog. If Tybura can survive the early exchanges, he should have the gas tank to chip away at the heavier Tuivasa.

This can all come unstuck if Tybura opts to test his mettle in a standup war, but if he plays it smart and remains elusive, his BJJ black belt might prove the difference. Like all heavyweight fights, this might be over in a flash, but we are backing Tybura to use some guile to earn the victory.

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