UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia picks and betting lines

Date: Saturday, August 1st 2015 at 7:00pm ET

Weigh-Ins: Friday, July 31st 2015 at 5:00pm ET

Venue: HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

TV: Main Card (PPV) & Prelims (TSN2 or Fox Sports 1)

WE’RE heading back to the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro this weekend for UFC 190. This time around – the women will be front and center in Brazil, although I’m sure the Brazilian fans are more interested in watching the Brazilians fight.

The Nogueira brothers will be fighting on the same fight card for the first time since UFC 140 (December 2011), Maia and Alcantara are both in action on the prelims, plus Antonio Silva will look to rebound in his home country.

Rousey vs. Correia fight odds

Unless you’re interested in betting on Correia (AKA: throwing money away) – you’re going to have to target alternative markets in the main event to make any money. Rousey is a huge money line favorite and with good reason.

• Money Line: Ronda Rousey -1400 (Bovada) vs. Bethe Correia +1100 (5Dimes)

• Round Total: Over 1.5 Rounds +280 (5Dimes) vs. Under 1.5 Rounds -340 (5Dimes)

• Win by Submission: Ronda Rousey -215 (5Dimes) vs. Bethe Correia +2200 (5Dimes)

• Win by TKO/KO: Ronda Rousey +250 (5Dimes) vs. Bethe Correia +1815 (5Dimes)

Rousey opened at -1500 and has settled at -1400 at several shops, although most shops have an even worse line. Correia opened up at +700 and has drifted out to +1100 at 5Dimes, although most bookies have her priced at under 10/1 still.

Rousey vs. Correia stats pack

Before I get into the meat of my UFC 190 main event betting preview – let’s look at the tale of the tape.

Ronda Rousey (11-0):

Age: 28

Height: 5’7”

Reach: 68”

Stance: Orthodox

Average Fight Time: 2:39

Stoppage Victories: 11 (2 TKO/KO & 9 Submissions)

Stoppage Losses: 0

Bethe Correia (9-0):

Age: 32

Height: 5’5”

Reach: 64”

Stance: Orthodox

Average Fight Time: 12:19

Stoppage Victories: 2 (2 TKO/KO)

Stoppage Losses: 0

Rousey vs. Correia fight preview

We have two undefeated fighters in the UFC 190 main event, but that’s where the similarities end.

Since joining the UFC – Rousey is 5-0 with wins against Liz Carmouche (#10), Miesha Tate (#1), Sara McMann (#4), Alexis Davis (#3) and Cat Zingano (#2). All of her opponents are ranked in the top 10 in the bantamweight division.

Just who has Correia fought to earn a title shot? Well, Correia is 3-0 in the UFC, winning against Shayna Baszler, Jessamyn Duke and Julie Kedzie. None of those women are even ranked in the top 15 in the division.

To say Correia has had an easy road to a title shot would be a complete understatement.

Correia won her last fight by TKO, but she isn’t known for her power. Seven of her victories have been by decision and that’s against weak competition. She isn’t a finisher and there’s no way this fight is going to go the distance.

I suppose the UFC wanted a Brazilian to fight Rousey, but this is a complete mismatch.

The question is – will Rousey aim for a quick submission or will she toy will Correia and try to knock her out. Correia isn’t much of a threat and Rousey could utilize her judo to throw Correia to the mat and end the fight at anytime.

However, Rousey may look to KO her opponent, just like she did against McMann and Davis.

Rousey vs. Correia predictions

• Best Bet: Rousey by TKO/KO +250 at 5Dimes.eu

Rousey went back to her trademark armbar against Zingano and finished her in 14 seconds. Her judo is incredible, but she seemingly enjoys trying to mix it up against weaker competition by utilizing her improved striking.

Prior to the Zingano fight – Rousey had won two in a row by TKO/KO and I believe she’ll look to knockout Correia. This is a tough fight to bet on, as Rousey can really do whatever she feels like and that makes it harder to predict.

UFC 190 best bets

• Stefan Struve ITD -115 (5Dimes) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

I’m going big on Stefan Struve (25-7) against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-9-1-1).

Not only am I betting on Struve ITD, but I’ll have action on Struve ML (-170) too, as he should be priced way higher.

Sure, Minotauro is fighting in his home country, but he’s 39 years old and coming off two stoppage losses against Roy Nelson (KO) and Fabricio Werdum (Sub). Struve has lost two in a row against Alistair Overeem and Mark Hunt.

Struve was knocked out in both fights, but those are guys with big power. Prior to those losses – Struve had wins over Stipe Miocic, Lavar Johnson, Dave Herman and Pat Berry — all of those wins came via stoppage.

The Dutch fighter will have a 7” reach advantage in the cage and his striking is still lethal, whereas Minotauro hasn’t knocked anyone out since Brendan Schaub in 2011. If you’re looking to load up on UFC 190 – this is the fight.

• Rafael Cavalcante ML +140 (Bovada) vs. Patrick Cummins

My best UFC 190 underdog to bet on is Rafael Cavalcante (12-5-0-1) against Patrick Cummins (7-2). Cummins is #14 on the light heavyweight rankings list, while Cavalcante is #10, the public has this fight wrong and I’ll be on the Brazilian.

Cummins has been knocked out twice (Daniel Cormier & Ovince St. Preux). OSP just knocked him out in April.

Cavalcante is a knockout fighter – he either wins or losses via knockout for the most part. Cavalcante has fought 18 times in his career and 14 of those fights ended by TKO/KO – Cavalcante has won 11 by TKO/KO and lost 3 by TKO/KO.

One thing Cummins doesn’t have is power. Cavalcante is in his home country, going against a fighter susceptible to the TKO/KO and priced as an underdog. I’m also interested in Cavalcante by TKO/KO once the betting line is released.

UFC 190 parlay picks

• Rousey ITD + Struve ML + Palelei ML Parlay (+161) at 5Dimes

You can’t go wrong with this 3-fighter parlay at plus money (+161).

I’ll have the same parlay with Rousey by TKO/KO, as that pays way better (+734), but that’s also a lot riskier.

Rousey ITD is easy. She’ll win inside the distance, whether it’s by submission or knockout is irrelevant. I love Struve and already explained why I’m betting on him to dominate Minotauro on Saturday night.

My last pick is Soa Palelei (22-4) against Antonio Silva (18-7-1). Post-TRT Silva is a complete joke. He hasn’t won in four fights now dating back to 2013 and he was absolutely laid out by an aging Mir back in February of this year in Brazil.

I don’t even know why he took this fight. Palelei has heavy hands (18 TKO/KO Wins). He slept through a decision loss to Rosholt, but he’s 4-1 in the UFC with 4 TKO/KO wins. He just beat Walt Harris and will dominate Bigfoot.