UFC 265 main card preview, best bets & value picks – 7/8/2021

Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz has moved into the co-main event slot at UFC 265 with the cancellation of Amanda Nunes’s title defense against Julianna Pena. While it hurts to lose a star of Nunes’s caliber due to a positive COVID-19 test, the main card leading up to the main event of Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane on Saturday now has four super, evenly matched fights, all with favorites going off at longer than -140. Here are our predictions for the UFC 265 main card.

Bantamweight: José Aldo (-113) vs Pedro Munhoz (-107)

Jose Aldo (29-7-0) snapped a three-fight losing streak in his last fight in December with a strong performance in a decision win over Marlon Vera. Pedro Munhoz (19-5) is also coming off of a win that snapped a losing streak, defeating Jimmy Rivera in February after losing back-to-back fights to Aljamain Sterling and Frankie Edgar.

This should be a really interesting fight that likely comes down to what type of form Aldo is in. While Aldo is just 4-6 over his last 10 fights, all of those losses have come against stern competition. Still, Aldo has a lot of mileage under his belt with over 10 years competing in the UFC. This is a huge opportunity for Munhoz to step up and defeat a legend after he failed to do so last time around when he lost to Edgar. We think that this time he uses his high volume of strikes to earn enough points for an upset in this spot.

Welterweight: Vicente Luque (-115) vs Michael Chiesa (-105)

Vicente Luque (20-7-1) has bounced back nicely from his loss to Stephen Thompson with three straight wins over Niko Price, Randy Brown and Tyron Woodley to improve to 9-1 over his last 10 fights. Michael Chiesa has picked up four straight wins since his last loss in 2018 including a win over Neil Magny in January. This will be an interesting clash of styles as Chiesa will likely try to get this fight to the mat while Luque will look to keep the fight on his feet and use his striking advantage. Given Luque’s outstanding knockout power and conditioning, we lean his way in what should be a really fun fight.

Women’s Strawweight: Tecia Torres (-137) vs Angela Hill (+117)

Tecia Torres (12-5) had her UFC career on the ropes with four straight losses before bouncing back with a pair of wins in 2020 over Brianna Van Buren and Sam Hughes. Angela Hill (13-9) has been on a tear over her last six fights with a 4-2 record and both of those losses coming by razor-thin split decisions. Both of these fighters will be comfortable keeping the fight off of the mat and trading blows. Torres is the more polished fighter, though Hill has a higher output. This could be another Angela Hill fight that ends up being too close to call, but we like her chances as a live underdog in this one.

Bantamweight: Casey Kenney (-113) vs Yadong Song (-107)

Casey Kenney (16-3-1) was 9-1 over his previous 10 fights before losing to Dominick Cruz by split decision at UFC 259 in March. Yadong Song (16-5-1) is also coming off of a rare loss on that same card as his loss to Kyler Phillips snapped a nine fight undefeated streak (8-0-1) that included a 5-0-1 start in the UFC. Kenney will be the aggressor in this fight, which will likely be decided by how well Kenney mixes up his attack and how well Song defends and counterattacks. Song’s light feet and athleticism should help him overcome Kenney’s volume to get the 23-year-old back in the win column.