UFC 317: Topuria v Oliveira fight predictions & betting picks

UFC 317 takes over the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this Saturday night for the annual International Fight Week pay-per-view, headlined by a pair of high-stakes title fights.

The main event features undefeated phenom Ilia Topuria moving up in weight to challenge former champion Charles Oliveira for the vacant UFC lightweight belt.

In the co-main event, flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja puts his title on the line against New Zealand’s Kai Kara-France in a rematch nearly a decade in the making.

There are 13 fights scheduled, with the prelims kicking off at 6:30pm ET and the main card getting underway at 10pm.

Check out our full UFC betting preview and best bets for every main card matchup below

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UFC 317 main card preview

Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira

Lightweight title bout

Ilia Topuria (16-0) is chasing greatness with a shot at becoming a two-division UFC champion, with all the top sports betting sites installing him as a heavy favorite. After back-to-back knockouts of Alex Volkanovski and Max Holloway, “El Matador” rides into 155 with momentum and striking power few can match. His movement, boxing accuracy, and pressure make him lethal early, and he’s shown he can carry that danger into later rounds. The big question is whether his power and takedown defense translate at lightweight.

Charles Oliveira (34-10) is the UFC’s all-time finish leader and still a live threat in any fight. At 35, “Do Bronx” remains an elite grappler with slick BJJ, dangerous kicks, and explosive offense in chaos. But he’s been dropped in four of his last six, and his defensive flaws are tough to hide against a puncher like Topuria. Oliveira’s best chance is to drag this into the fire and test Topuria’s chin and cardio — there is too much value here to not back Oliveira.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France

Flyweight title bout

Alexandre Pantoja (28-5) has quietly put together one of the UFC’s best title runs. The flyweight king is on a seven-fight tear, owns wins over Brandon Moreno (twice) and Brandon Royval, and submitted his upcoming opponent on TUF years ago. At 35, he’s a cardio machine with heavy leg-kicks, suffocating grappling, and a championship mindset. Pantoja doesn’t mind a war, but his edge lies in his ground pressure and ability to control tempo across five rounds.

Kai Kara-France (25-11) gets a second shot at UFC gold, and the Kiwi brawler brings real pop at 125 pounds. He rebounded with a knockout win over Steve Erceg in Perth and has the experience and team to mount an upset. But against elite grapplers, he’s struggled to create space, and Pantoja has only sharpened since their first meeting. Kara-France needs to keep this standing and land early, or he risks being ground down again by a familiar foe.

Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano

Lightweight bout

Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) returns for the first time since a brutal knockout loss to Arman Tsarukyan and is looking to stop a two-fight slide. Once seen as a dark horse, Dariush has elite scrambles, clean striking, and years of top-level experience. His durability is a concern, but if he can weather early storms and keep it standing, he can outwork his opponent over three rounds.

Renato Moicano (18-5-1) is coming off a short-notice loss to Islam Makhachev but looked sharp before that with four wins in five. The Brazilian veteran is an aggressive pressure fighter who blends jab-heavy boxing with nasty submissions. If this hits the ground, Moicano has the tools to make life miserable — but he’ll need to fight smart and avoid Dariush’s big counters.

Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van

Flyweight bout

Brandon Royval (16-7) is unpredictable, scrappy, and has only lost to champions. After avenging his loss to Brandon Moreno earlier this year, he finds himself one win away from another title shot. Royval thrives in chaos and scrambles, but his durability and decision history are concerns against clean, composed strikers.

Joshua Van (14-2) is a 23-year-old phenom who’s fought five times in the last year and just stopped Bruno Silva three weeks ago. His boxing is crisp, footwork smart, and confidence sky-high. Van’s challenge will be managing Royval’s wild tempo — but if he keeps his composure, his precision should win out over three rounds.

Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima

Bantamweight bout

Payton Talbott (9-1) had serious buzz entering 2025, but his hype train hit a wall in a decision loss to Raoni Barcelos. The 26-year-old striker is slick, fast, and aggressive, but questions about his cardio and takedown defense remain. A big showing here is needed to rediscover his upward momentum.

Felipe Lima (15-1) is riding a 14-fight win streak and has proved he belongs in the UFC with two solid performances up a weight class. Now back at bantamweight, the Stockholm-based Brazilian brings high fight IQ, aggressive wrestling, and finishing ability. If he gets Talbott down early, this could be one-way traffic.

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UFC 317 prelim predictions

Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues

Middleweight bout

Hyder Amil vs Jose Delgado

Featherweight bout

Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez

Women’s flyweight bout

Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshchev

Lightweight bout

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UFC 317 early prelim picks

Niko Price vs Jacobe Smith

Welterweight bout

Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines

Heavyweight bout

Christopher Ewert vs Jackson McVey

Welterweight bout

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