UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes – betting picks & predictions

The UFC heads back Down Under this Saturday night as RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia, hosts a stacked UFC Fight Night card topped by Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes. Local stars Jimmy Crute, Jack Jenkins, Jake Matthews, Tom Nolan and more load up a high-energy main card while prospects and veterans collide on the prelims.

Here’s your fight-by-fight UFC betting preview with top picks, props, and odds with the top online betting sites for UFC Perth.

UFC Perth main card preview

Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes

Carlos Ulberg (12–1) has evolved from marauding knockout artist to a patient sniper under the City Kickboxing banner. Riding an eight-fight UFC win streak with seven finishes overall, the 6’4” New Zealander comes off composed decision wins over Volkan Oezdemir and Jan Blachowicz. He now mixes tight boxing with long kicks to chip away before landing clean, and RAC Arena gives him a true “home” main event atmosphere.

Dominick Reyes (15–4) is a former title challenger who has rejuvenated his career with three straight knockouts over Dustin Jacoby, Anthony Smith and Nikita Krylov. The 6’4” southpaw’s unorthodox angles, lateral movement and finishing instincts can still trouble aggressive strikers, but he has been stopped three times and faces a fresher, surging athlete in Ulberg on Saturday night.

Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan

Jimmy Crute (13–4–2) snapped a five-fight winless skid in July with a slick armbar over Marcin Prachnio. The 28-year-old Australian is a powerful wrestler with dangerous BJJ who can bank control time and attack for submissions once on top. In front of a home crowd he’ll be looking to re-establish himself as a contender at 205 pounds.

Ivan Erslan (14–5) is a two-time KSW title challenger who has struggled in the UFC so far, dropping decisions to Ion Cutelaba and Navajo Stirling. The Croatian brings big-knockout credentials from the regional scene but has been tentative at this level, landing just 2.5 significant strikes per minute and giving up takedowns in bunches. Unless he turns that around quickly, Crute’s grappling edge looms large.

Jack Jenkins vs Ramon Tavera

Jack Jenkins (13–4) returns on home soil with his trademark calf kicks and combination boxing. Despite a submission loss last time out, he lands 4.5 significant strikes per minute at 61% accuracy and absorbs less than three a minute, with solid defensive wrestling to keep fights standing.

Ramon Taveras (10–3) moves up from bantamweight after repeated weight-cut issues. A southpaw with power and aggression, he’s also absorbed 7.4 significant strikes per minute in his UFC run, which is a dangerous stat against a measured kicker like Jenkins.

Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny

Jake Matthews (22–7) has quietly reeled off three straight wins, including a slick submission of Chidi Njokuani in July. The 31-year-old Australian mixes boxing and grappling well and hasn’t absorbed the same mileage as older welterweights.

Neil Magny (30–13) makes his 36th UFC walk as a perennial spoiler. The 38-year-old has a seven-inch reach advantage and a clinch-grinding style but has been stopped in back-to-back fights before his win over Elizeu Zaleski. Matthews’ youth and durability give him a path to outwork Magny down the stretch.

Best Bet: Jake Matthews by Points – $2.25

Louie Sutherland vs Justin Tafa

Louie Sutherland (10–3) makes his UFC debut after holding the Levels Fight League heavyweight title. The athletic Englishman finishes fights in bursts and has faced international opposition outside the UFC.

Justin Tafa (7–5) is a boom-or-bust knockout artist with three wins in his last seven. Coming off a 35-second loss, he’ll be hoping home soil revives him, but Sutherland’s freshness and variety could flip the script.

Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell

Tom Nolan (9–1) vs. Charlie Campbell (9–2)

Tom Nolan (9–1) is a rangy 6’3” lightweight with sharp counters and long knees up the middle. The Brisbane product is 3–0 since his UFC debut stumble and uses his reach well to stay out of danger.

Charlie Campbell (9–2) is a hard-hitting combination puncher with solid wrestling but steps in off a 17-month layoff and a long trip to Australia. He’s live early, but if Nolan stays composed, his volume and timing should win out.

UFC Perth prelim best bets

Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato

Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski

Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya

Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa

Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina

Brando Peričić vs Elisha Ellison

Alexia Thainara vs Loma Lookboonmee