AFL Friday Kangaroos vs. Hawthorn line betting form and free tips

Friday, June 17, 7.50pm AEST, Etihad Stadium, watch on Seven, Fox Footy

Ladder position:
North Melbourne Kangaroos: First
Hawthorn Hawks: Fifth

Season record:
North Melbourne Kangaroos: 10-2
Hawthorn Hawks: 9-3

Last five match results:
North Melbourne Kangaroos: WWLWL
Hawthorn Hawks: WLWWW

Head-to-head odds:
North Melbourne Kangaroos: $2.75 with CrownBet.com.au
Hawthorn Hawks: $1.45 with CrownBet.com.au

Line betting:
North Melbourne Kangaroos: +14.5 ($1.92 with SportsBet.com.au)
Hawthorn Hawks: -14.5 ($1.92 with SportsBet.com.au)

NORTH Melbourne botched its first attempt at a match of the round against Geelong last week, thanks to a Patrick Dangerfield special, but it gets another chance against Hawthorn on Friday night.

And the Roos may have to do it without five of their key men, thanks to a raft of injuries suffered against the Cats on the weekend.

Andrew Swallow (concussion), Ben Cunnington (thigh), Nick Dal Santo (adductor), Robin Nahas (compound fracture of finger) and Shaun Atley (ankle) are all on the injury list, making it so much tougher against a Hawks’ side that had an easy 100-point tune up against Essendon.

And the Extractor Sam Mitchell will be coming off a week’s rest as well and will be primed for the challenge against the Roos?

Could it be a case of de ja vu for the the Kangaroos and could we see a Dangerfield Mark II performance from Mitchell?

It’s on the cards, given that Brad Scott prefers not to go with the hard tag, especially with Sam Gibson on the injury rack as well.

We think so.

Mitchell has had the week’s rest and will be back against a side that is set to be depleted.

The little master is $2 to have more than 30 possessions and we feel that is serious value.

But, if you think he can emulate Dangerfield and crack 35 or even 40 disposals, Sportsbet is offering $5.60 for the former and a gaudy, but not unattainable $15 for the latter.

He opened the season in a blaze of glory – including a 44 possession effort against St Kilda in round four. But he cooled off and was clearly in need of a rest.

It should do him good and we reckon 30 touches is almost a given.

On the North Melbourne front, how good is the Rolls Royce Daniel Wells going? Most people thought the midfield ace was cooked after last season, but Wells has proven the doubters wrong, with some saying he is in career best form. His past two have been particularly sensational, backing up a three goal 29 disposal, seven tackle tour de force with 31 possessions in a losing effort against the Cats.

He’s always been a beautiful user of the footy and his ability to find a ton of it has been a key in North’s resurgence.

He’s gone over 25 in each of his last two games and we are backing him in to make it three in a row at $1.75. To go over 30 is a dicier bet at $4.70, but, if the Roos are going to win this game, he will probably need to, especially if Brad Scott listens to former North legend Wayne Carey.

He thinks the Roos should take no risks with their injured stars.

“It is a long season. I think one of the great things about having early wins on the board — and we’ve seen Geelong do it over the years, and the Hawks — is you’ve got to manage your list,” Carey said.

“If there is any doubt, if any of those are not 100 per cent fit, I would not play any of them this week, knowing that next week — Hawthorn Friday night, they go to Adelaide on a Thursday night.

“I wouldn’t be going in with half-fit guys, because the chances are, you lose that one, then you carry that injury into the Adelaide game.”

Match predictions

Match result: Hawthorn Hawks to win ($1.45 with CrownBet.com.au)
Line betting: Hawthorn Hawks -14.5 ($1.92 with sportsbet.com.au)

The Kangaroos are pretenders. There, we said it. Gotten over it yet? It has been the same for years. The Roos beat up on the poorer teams, but just don’t have it when it gets to the pointy end. But can they prove us wrong? It is a game between two teams, but you just feel like the Hawks have the muscle and the want to knock over the Roos in the blockbuster. They tuned up for this one by murdering the Bombers by 108 points, with stand in captain Jordan Lewis collecting 35 disposals and Grant Birchall winding back the clock with 30, while Luke Bruest, Jack Gunston and Paul Puopolo booted four goals each. Three players took 10 marks or more in a dominant display. We might be being a bit harsh on the Roos, considering all the injuries they suffered against the Cats. And they were in it for most of the match, but they just couldn’t stop Dangerfield and Geelong captain Joel Selwood from running amok in the six goal loss. The former had a ridiculous 48 disposals and kicked two goals, while the latter had 38. Sam Gibson held his head high for the Roos with 34 disposals, helped by Wells, but the Roos had several passengers and that made it impossible to win when coupled with the injuries. We think the battle hardened Hawks will send another message to the competition after being well rested in their demolition of Essendon and do this one by a similar margin of six goals, just like the Cats on the weekend.