Geelong vs Brisbane tips & predictions | AFL Grand Final 2025

Geelong and Brisbane clash in the 2025 AFL Grand Final at the MCG this Saturday, bringing the curtain down on another thrilling season of Australian footy.

The Cats are chasing their second flag in four years, while the Lions enter as defending champions and will contest their third consecutive grand final.

Geelong sealed their spot in the decider last Friday with a commanding 30-point win over Hawthorn. Despite a slow start that saw them concede the opening three goals, the Cats dominated much of the contest and withstood a late Hawks surge.

Brisbane followed up on Saturday with a 29-point triumph over Collingwood at the MCG. Trailing at halftime, the Lions exploded with 11 goals in the second half to overwhelm the Magpies.

The sides have already met three times this year. Brisbane claimed both encounters in the regular season, but Geelong had the upper hand in the qualifying final, cruising to a 38-point victory.

Top AFL betting sites list Geelong as slight favorites at -178.57, with Brisbane priced at +150 in what is shaping up to be cracking contest on the biggest stage in footy.

Geelong vs Brisbane team news – AFL Grand Final 2025

Geelong have suffered a major setback with star defender Tom Stewart sidelined due to concussion. His absence is expected to see ruckman Rhys Stanley recalled, while Mark Blicavs shifts into the backline.

Brisbane also face a big blow, with midfielder Jarrod Berry in doubt following a shoulder injury. On the positive side, Lachie Neale — a two-time Brownlow Medal winner — is pushing for a remarkable return after a calf issue sustained against the Cats three weeks ago.

Should Neale fail to prove his fitness, Bruce Reville is tipped to move into the 22, with either James Tunstill or Deven Robertson filling the final spot.

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Geelong vs Brisbane AFL Grand Final predictions

To win by 1-39 points – Geelong

In the latter stages of the season, few teams have looked as complete as Geelong. With veteran leadership across every line and a strong balance of stars and role players, the Cats bring a well-drilled unit into the big game. Having beaten Brisbane just three weeks ago, expect Geelong to get home by under 40 points at +115 odds.

To have 30+ disposals – Bailey Smith

Bailey Smith has been a revelation in his debut season at the Cats, consistently winning the ball and driving play. Averaging 31.4 disposals per game, he has topped 30 touches in six of his last seven outings. Back him to hit 30 or more again at +115.

To have 25+ disposals – Darcy Wilmot

Darcy Wilmot has quietly become one of Brisbane’s most reliable performers. The 21-year-old has averaged 25.5 disposals over his past four matches, offering rebound and spark off half-back. At +215 with online bookmakers, Wilmot shapes as strong value to collect 25 disposals once more.

Nom Smith Medal winner – Shaun Mannagh

Recent history suggests value in the Norm Smith Medal betting market, with each of the past three winners starting at +1900 odds or higher. Geelong half-forward Shaun Mannagh is a live chance — dangerous near goal and capable of finding plenty of the ball. At +2500, he’s well worth a look.