MLB betting picks & top value plays – Saturday, May 7

It looks like the theme of the 2022 MLB season thus far is the dead ball. It looks like the MLB fittled with the ball yet again this offseason as offense is down throughout the league compared to previous seasons. This is surely something to keep in mind as we roll into the summer months, the ball will start to fly with warmer weather but not like we have seen in the past.

For Saturday’s slate of MLB games, it looks like there are some very good pitching matchups in the National League. Pairing this with the low offensive output we have seen thus far, should give an edge in betting on Saturday’s games.

Here are some of our favorite picks.

St. Louis Cardinals (+1.5, +100 ML) @ San Francisco Giants (-1.5, -120 ML)

Probable Pitchers : Steven Matz vs Logan Webb

The national league showdown between the Cardinals and Giants is poised to be a good one. With Matz and Webb taking the hill, runs could be hard to come by despite two of the league’s better lineups.

Matz, 31, has been a serviceable starter thus far in 2022. In his first year with the Cardinals, Matz has thrown just over 23 innings in five games started, he has scattered 29 hits and 12 earned runs all while striking out 27 batters. While Matz hasn’t been spectacular this season, he has been exactly what the Cardinals have needed. Over his career, Matz has shown to be a middle to the back end of the rotation innings eater which could be used by any team.

Webb on the other hand looks to be on the verge of becoming one of the league’s top arms. After bursting onto the scene a year ago, Webb finished his age 24 season with a 3.03 ERA across 148 innings after struggling his first couple of years with the Giants. It looks like the more innings that Webb is able to take down, the better he will become. This year, Webb has pitched over 30 innings allowing 11 runs. Webb proved last year that he can turn it on at any given time, and should he get into his grove it might be tough sledding for a Cardinals offense averaging 4.3 runs per game.

We see why the books like the Giants in this one, but this is a matchup between two teams that have shown that they know how to win games. Neither the Cardinals nor the Giants particularly stand out on paper, but they always seem to be in the mix toward the end of the year. We’re going to ride with the Giants money line in this one, but we would stay away from the 1.5 spread and expect this one to be pretty close.

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Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5, -115 ML) @ Atlanta Braves (+1.5, -105)

Probable pitchers : Corbin Burnes vs Max Fried

The books are almost at a pick’em here and for good reason. This is another matchup between two of the top teams in the National League that will surely be competing for a postseason berth come September. In this one, the Brewers have Corbin Burnes taking the bump. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner is off to another tremendous start. In 32.2 innings, Burnes has allowed seven runs but has already struck out 43 batters in five starts. It looks like as Burnes enters his prime years that he will continue to get better. While it is certainly going to be tough to repeat his performance from last year, it’s definitely not impossible for the Brewers ace. On Saturday, Burnes will take on what should be a tough Atlanta offense, but they are only plating 3.8 runs per game, good for 18th in baseball .

The Braves will be throwing their ace as well. Fried has slowly become a consistent and reliable starter at the top of the Braves rotation. The 2012 first round selection by the Padres has made a name for himself since coming up in 2016 pitching to a career 3.32 ERA. So far this season, Fried has been just about spot on with his career averages. He has pitched 30 innings and scattered 10 earned runs. One thing is for sure, the under on this game is awfully appetizing. It will likely be a pitcher’s duel between two of the league’s top arms. The under 6.5 runs and Braves +1.5 seems like the right bet here.

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Miami Marlins (+1.5, +115 ML) @ San Diego Padres (-1.5, -135 ML)

Probable pitchers : Pablo Lopez vs Sean Manaea

By all accounts, this could very well be another pitcher’s duel. Lopez and Manaea are two very good arms themselves. Lopez seems to be getting better year by year and is the cream of the crop of the Marlins’ young impressive set of arms. Lopez has only allowed 4 earned runs this year, if he’s able to put together a full season he could very well be in the conversation for the NL Cy Young award.

Lopez will be opposed by former Oakland Athletic Manaea. Manaea in his first couple of games with the Padres has been good, not great but has proven with the A’s that if he finds his arm slot he can literally be unhittable. In 2018 Manaea no hit the Red Sox who would go on to win the World Series later that year. Manaea has been known to get streaky hot and get unhittable as he’s gotten close a couple of other times throughout his career.

With all that being said, the Padres are clearly the better team here. They are holding their own thus far in a brutal NL West that includes the Dodgers and Giants who both won 100+ games a season ago. The Padres have found their way to a 17-9 record without their best player who has yet to play a game this year. Once the Fernando Tatis finds his way back to the Padres lineup, they are every bit of the World Series contenders that their division rivals are. Take the Padres money line in this one despite Lopez being on the hill.

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