NFL 2021 Week 7 preview, best bets & top spread picks

The undefeated Arizona Cardinals are the biggest favorites on the NFL betting board in Week 7, going off at -17.5 at home against the Houston Texans. We’ve got a pick in that game and two more plays in the Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans and New York Jets vs New England Patriots matchups in this Sunday’s NFL best bets.

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans (+5.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs (3-3-0) played their best game of the season last Sunday in a 31-13 win over the Washington Redskins as Patrick Mahomes passed for 397 yards and two touchdowns. The Tennessee Titans (4-2-0) beat what many believe to be the best team in the NFL this season in the Buffalo Bills 34-31 as six-point underdogs.

This should be a really fun matchup. If Kansas City’s defense plays as well against Tennessee as it did against Washington, the Chiefs could earn the win and cover here. But that may be difficult as Kansas City has struggled against the run this season and will be facing the league’s best running back in Derrick Henry, who has rushed for 430 yards and seven touchdowns in Tennessee’s last three games. We expect another big game from Henry here and a close enough score for the Titans to cover the spread.

New York Jets (+7) at New England Patriots (-7)

The last time these two teams met, back in Week 2, the New England Patriots (2-4-0) rolled to a 25-6 win at home over the New York Jets (1-4-0). New England’s outstanding pass defense had Zach Wilson completely rattled as the rookie quarterback threw four interceptions and no touchdown passes for the Jets.

And that all happened in New York. Now, Wilson will have to face this Patriots defense while dealing with a hostile crowd at Foxborough. New England is 10-0 in its last 10 home games against the Jets and has won the last five home games between these two rivals by an average margin of 24.6 points. The Patriots aren’t as good as they used to be, but they are plenty good enough to still blow out the Jets at home.

Houston Texans (+17.5) at Arizona Cardinals (-17.5)

In what was supposed to be a competitive game on the road against the Cleveland Browns last Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals (6-0-0) rolled to a 37-14 victory to remain undefeated on the season. The Houston Texans (1-5-0), meanwhile, lost their fifth straight game, going down 31-3 on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. During this losing streak, they’ve been outscored by an average of 19.2 points per game.

Football betting operators didn’t really know what to do with the spread in this one and chose to make the Cardinals massive 17.5-point favorites at home. The spread isn’t unreasonable given how bad the Texans are and how good the Cardinals are; Arizona’s best effort for four quarters would easily win by three touchdowns. But looking ahead on the Cardinals’ schedule, they have the Green Bay Packers next Thursday on just three days of rest. If Arizona jumps out to a big early lead here, we expect them to dial it back and even rest some starters, which should give Houston the chance to cover with the points.