UFC 259 prelims betting predictions – Saturday 6/3/2021

UFC 259 prelim card preview

The main card at UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya features three title fights along with two other ranked matchups. If you thought the prelim fights were going to be lacking because of the big names on the top card, you’ve got another thing coming. Let’s dive into the UFC 259 preliminary fights and early prelims, with odds courtesy of Bovada.

UFC 259 early prelims

Mario Bautista (-240) vs Trevin Jones (+205)

These are two bantamweights with something to prove. Trevin Jones (12-6-0) is interesting because his last fight against Timur Valiev in August of 2020 was deemed a no contest after he received a positive drug test for marijuana. Prior to that, Jones was riding a two-fight win streak. Keep in mind that if it wasn’t for the positive drug test, he would have had a convincing TKO victory over a strong bantamweight fighter in Valiev. Mario Bautista (8-1-0) is on a two-fight win streak himself, with his last victory being a February 2020 KO/TKO over Miles Johns at UFC 247. Bautista is well-rounded, going 3-0 by KO/TKO, 3-1 by submission, and 2-0 by decision in his career. Jones is also capable of winning in different ways, going 2-0 by KO/TKO, 4-1 by submission, and 6-5 by decision. If you side with Bautista, we like him to win by points decision. However, if you like a Jones victory, we like him inside the distance. We prefer the latter.

Uros Medic (-161) vs Aalon Cruz (+141)

Our second fight of the evening is a lightweight bout featuring two former Dana White’s Contender Series victors in Uros Medic (6-0-0, 0-0 UFC) and Aalon Cruz (8-3-0, 0-1 UFC). Medic is undefeated entering his UFC debut, with his most recent fight being an August 2020 KO/TKO win over Mikey Gonzalez. Cruz’s most recent fight was a February 2020 KO/TKO loss to Spike Carlyle. Medic is 4-0 by KO/TKO, 2-0 by submission, and 0-0 by decision in his career, while Cruz is 2-1 by KO/TKO, 2-2 by submission, and 4-0 by decision. Under 1.5 total rounds at +110 is an interesting play if you like Medic in this fight. The path to victory for Cruz we believe would be a points decision. Our pick is Medic inside the distance.

Livinha Souza (+195) vs Amanda Lemos (-230)

Both of these fighters are coming off victories in their last fights. Livinha Souza (14-2-0) defeated Ashley Yoder by unanimous decision in August 2020, while Amanda Lemos (8-1-1) is one a two-fight win streak after beating Mizuki Inoue by unanimous decision one week later. Souza is 2-0 by KO/TKO, 8-0 by submission, and 4-2 by decision in her career, while Lemos is 5-1 by KO/TKO, 2-0 by submission, and is 1-0-1 by decision. We like Lemos to win by points decision.

Sean Brady (-192) vs Jake Matthews (+167)

Sean Brady (13-0-0) is undefeated, and online bookmakers think he will continue his winning ways. Jake Matthews (17-4-0) is riding a three-fight win streak, so we expect this to be a competitive matchup. Brady’s last fight was an August 2020 submission win over Christian Aguilera, whereas Matthews most recent bout was a September 2020 unanimous decision victory over Diego Sanchez. Brady is 3-0 by KO/TKO, 3-0 by submission, and 7-0 by decision in his career, and Matthews is 4-1 by KO/TKO, 7-2 by submission, and 6-1 by decision. The underdog is in a good spot here, and we like him straight up.

Kennedy Nzechukwu (+220) vs Charles Ulberg (-260)

Our fifth early prelim fight features Kennedy Nzechukwu (7-1-0) and UFC debutant Charles Ulberg (5-0-0). Both fighters have victories on Dana White’s Contender Series, with Nzechukwu having two. Nzechukwu is coming off an August 2019 unanimous decision against Darko Stosic, while Ulberg’s latest fight was his Contender Series victory over Bruno Oliviera by KO/TKO in November 2020. Nzechukwu is 4-0 by KO/TKO, 0-1 by submission, and 3-0 by decision in his career, and Ulberg is 3-0 by KO/TKO, 1-0 by submission, and 1-0 by decision. These are two relatively inexperienced light heavyweights, so we feel like the odds may be too far apart. We like Nzechukwu to spoil Ulberg’s UFC debut.

Tim Elliot (+105) vs Jordan Espinosa (-125)

Our final fight of the early prelim card brings together no.12-ranked flyweight Tim Elliot (17-11-1) and Jordan Espinosa (15-8-0). Elliot is coming off a July 2020 unanimous decision victory over Ryan Benoit, and Espinosa’s last fight was a September 2020 unanimous decision loss to David Dvorak. Elliot is 3-1 by KO/TKO, 6-5 by submission, and 8-5-1 by decision in his career, while Espinosa is 2-0 by KO/TKO, 7-4 by submission, and 6-4 by decision. We like Espinosa straight up in this spot.

UFC 259 prelims

Rogerio Bontorin (+115) vs Kai Kara France (-135)

Our first official prelim bout features two fighters tied for no.8 in the UFC Flyweight rankings – Rogerio Bontorin (16-2-0) and Kai Kara France (21-9-0). Bontorin is coming off a February 2020 unanimous decision loss to Ray Borg, while Kara France’s last fight was a September 2020 submission loss to Brandon Royval. Bontorin is 3-0 by KO/TKO, 11-1 by submission, and 2-1 by decision in his career, while Kara France is 9-2 by KO/TKO, 3-3 by submission, and 9-4 by decision. Which one of these fighters will get back on track? We are taking Kara France straight up due to his slightly tougher schedule.

Joseph Benavidez (+105) vs Askar Askarov (-125)

Moving up the flyweight rankings we have no.2 Joseph Benavidez (28-7-0) taking on no.3 Askar Askarov (12-0-1). This fight has big implications for a flyweight title bid soon after the rivalry of Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo is settled. Benavidez’s last fight was a July 2020 submission loss to the above mentioned Deiveson Figueiredo in a flyweight title fight. Askarov’s last fight was a July 2020 unanimous decision win over Alexandre Pantoja. Benavidez is 8-2 by KO/TKO, 9-1 by submission, and 11-4 by decision in his career, while Askarov is 3-0 by KO/TKO, 7-0 by submission, and 1-0-1 by decision. We like Askarov inside the distance to best the veteran Benavidez in this one.

Song Yadong (-155) vs Kyler Phillips (+135)

Song Yadong (16-4-1) is yet to lose in the UFC, with his last fight being a unanimous decision victory over Marlon Vera in May of 2020. Kyler Phillips (8-1-0) is on a three-fight win streak and is also undefeated in the UFC. His last fight was an October 2020 KO/TKO win over Cameron Else. Yadong is 6-1 by KO/TKO, 3-0 by submission, and 7-3-1 by decision in his career, while Phillips is 5-0 by KO/TKO, 1-0 by submission, and 2-1 by decision. We like Yadong to move up the bantamweight rankings with a win at UFC 259.

Dominick Cruz (+115) vs Casey Kenney (-135)

Our prelim headliner is another bantamweight bout featuring former WEC and UFC champion Dominick Cruz (22-3-0) and former LFA champion Casey Kenney (16-2-1). Cruz’s last fight was a May 2020 title challenge loss by KO/TKO to Henry Cejudo, who has since relinquished his bantamweight and flyweight titles. Kenney’s last fight was an October 2020 unanimous decision win over Nathaniel Wood. Cruz is 7-1 by KO/TKO, 1-1 by submission, and 14-1 by decision in his career, while Kenney is 2-0 by KO/TKO, 5-0 by submission, and 9-2-1 by decision. We are backing Cruz to bounce back with a win this weekend.