UFC 262 main card preview, betting picks & top odds – May 15

The UFC 262 card is one of the most competitive pay-per-view events we have seen in a while. The main event bout between Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler for the UFC Lightweight Championship has Oliveira listed as a slight favorite, and the other four matches on the card all have favorites listed at better than -200 odds. Here’s a look at the bouts leading up to the title fight.

Lightweight: Beneil Dariush (-170) vs Tony Ferguson (+145)

Beneil Dariush (20-4-1) has climbed into the top 10 in the UFC lightweight rankings with a 6-0 run over his last six fights. Dariush snapped Carlos Diego Ferreira’s six-fight winning streak in his last trip to the octagon earlier this year, won both of his fights in 2020 by knockout and took both of his fights in 2019 by submission. He is a well-rounded fighter that will be comfortable in this fight whether it winds up being fought on the mat or standing up.

Tony Ferguson (25-5-0) had one of the most impressive runs in UFC history from 2013 through 2019 when he went a perfect 12-0. His winning streak came to an end in a knockout loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC 249, and in his next fight at UFC 256 he was completely dominated in a loss to Charles Oliveira.

Ferguson has been saying the right things to the media about learning from his recent losses and being recharged heading into this fight. If that’s all true and he returns to top form, he’ll win. In reality, however, he has been completely dominated in each of his last eight rounds in the octagon. Actions speak louder than words, so we’ll roll with the hot fighter in his prime.

Women’s Flyweight: Katlyn Chookagian (-132) vs Viviane Araujo (+112)

Katlyn Chookagian (15-4-0) is 4-2 over her last six fights, and those two losses came by knockout against two elite strikers in Valentina Shevchenko and Jessica Andrade. Viviane Araujo (10-2-0) is 4-1 through her first five fights with the UFC and is coming off a decision win over Roxanne Modafferi in her most recent bout. This should be an outstanding bout between two very solid fighters; we’ll take a shot on Araujo as she’s got the slight edge in grappling and gets the underdog odds from UFC bookmakers in what should be a pretty even contest.

Featherweight: Shane Burgos (-130) vs Edson Barboza (+110)

Shane Burgos (13-2-0) is hoping to bounce back from his loss to Josh Emmett last June. Edson Barboza (21-9-0) was 1-5 in his previous six fights before snapping out of his slump with a decision win over Makwan Amirkhani. While Barboza’s 2-5 record over his last seven fights looks awful at first glance, all five of those losses came against excellent lightweights, and his most recent losses to Paul Felder and Dan Ige both came by split decision. In what should be a fun fight with both fighters trading big shots in the center of the octagon, we’ll take Barboza to edge out a win.

Bantamweight: Matt Schnell (-155) vs Rogerio Bontorin (+135)

Matt Schnell (15-5-0) is 5-1 over his last six fights with a decision win over Tyson Nam in his most recent fight in January. Rogerio Bontorin (16-3-0) entered the UFC with plenty of momentum riding a 14-1 record and won his first two fights with the promotion, but against tougher competition he hit a wall with back-to-back losses to Ray Borg and Kai Kara-France. We’ve seen a bit more to like out of Schnell to date; he should be able to take this fight to the mat and do enough to win it there.