UFC 291 main card preview & betting picks – July 29, 2023

The UFC 291 main card from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City is bristling with striking talent. Alex Pereira, who might be the best striker in MMA, makes his debut in the light heavyweight division against former champ Jan Blachowicz, karate fans will witness the sublime skills of Stephen Thompson when he faces Michel Pereira, and Bobby Green will roll out his slick boxing skills against veteran Tony Ferguson. Read on for our UFC 291 main card betting tips.

Dustin Poirier v Justin Gaethje

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje

Two top-shelf lightweights renew hostilities this weekend in the main event at UFC 291. See our full betting preview for Dustin Poirier v Justin Gaethje here.

Jan Blachowicz v Alex Pereira

Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira

Jan Blachowicz (29-9-1) is a hard-working athlete who always tries his heart out and has enjoyed a late career surge after initially struggling to make headway in the premier promotion. Blachowicz captured the light heavyweight crown in 2020 with a round one KO of Dominic Reyes, defended it against Israel Adesanya, then relinquished it to Glover Teixeira. He bounced back with a win over Alexander Rakic before scrapping out a disappointing draw for the vacant belt against Magomed Ankalaev. He is a technically sound striker who works some unorthodox angles, but he might be wise to pursue takedowns here against an elite standup fighter.

Alex Pereira (7-2-0) moves up a division after capturing and then losing the middleweight belt to Israel Adesanya in dramatic fashion. The Brazilian is a kickboxer by trade who may possess the best striking abilities in the MMA world. The rise in weight should present no problems, as Pereira was a towering middleweight who cut significant weight to make 185 pounds, but he nature of his most recent loss is cause for some concern. Pereira was knocked out cold by a devastating straight punch and did not move for some time after hitting the canvas, which is never a good sign.

Stephen Thompson v Michel Pereira

Stephen Thompson vs Michel Pereira

Stephen Thompson (17-6-1) is 4-4 following his failed bid for welterweight gold in 2017, and his grappling weaknesses have been exposed on multiple occasions. Thompson is among the more skilful strikers, but his limited ground game leaves him susceptible to long periods spent on his back. His most recent outing was an exclusively standup affair against Kevin Holland where Thompson wound back the clock to produce one of his finest performances. If he can keep this contest upright, the octagon veteran looks likely to repeat that effort here.

Michel Pereira (28-11-0) has amassed an impressive five-fight win streak to break into the top 15 at 170 pounds. The Brazilian has adopted a more cautious approach and his last four victories have all come via carefully constructed decision results. He was fortunate to earn the nod against Santiago Ponzinibbio in a close three-rounder, and it will be interesting to see if Pereira chooses to stand and trade shots with Thompson. He has seven submission wins on his record to Thompson’s one and holds a clear advantage in that facet of the game.

Bobby Green v Tony Ferguson

Bobby Green vs Tony Ferguson

Bobby Green (29-14-1) is a flashy puncher who is coming off an ugly no-contest result during which a clash of heads left his opponent, Jared Gordon, unable to continue. That aside, he is 5-4 in recent times and appears to be his worst enemy on occasion. When fully focussed and motivated, Green has the slick moves to pick opponents apart, but he can become distracted.

Tony Ferguson (26-8-0) has now lost five straight bouts, including three via stoppage, albeit against top-line competition including Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, and Michael Chandler. Ferguson is a unique individual who is never short of a quip, largely trains alone, and claims credit for the rise in the UFC’s popularity. He is a fan favourite who loves to brawl, but Father Time catches up with every athlete eventually.

Kevin Holland v Michael Chiesa

Kevin Holland vs Michael Chiesa

Kevin Holland (24-9-0) has endured fluctuating results in recent years with four wins, four losses, and one no-contest since 2020. During this period, he was picked apart by Stephen Thompson and choked out quickly by Khamzat Chimaev, but managed to find a late knockout against Santiago Ponzinibbio and finished Alex Oliveira with elbows. The 30-year-old is a gifted athlete who has struggled to find his correct weight class and has been a little too confident in his callouts. He has recorded 15 wins via KO and six by submission, demonstrating a well-rounded skillset, but has been through some heavy wars over the years.

Michael Chiesa (18-6-0) returns following a 20-month break from the UFC octagon following successive defeats in 2021. Prior to the losses, Chiesa had a nice run going with three straight wins after moving into the welterweight division. He boasts an excellent wrestling game and has recorded 11 wins via submission. His tenacity and grip have also been used to secure numerous decision victories. It is hard to predict how the lengthy break will affect his performance, but at his best, Chiesa is a hard man to shake loose.

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