UFC 301 betting preview, top picks & fight predictions

The main card for UFC 301: Pantoja vs Erceg at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro is predictably stacked with Brazilian talent. Key highlights include Jose Aldo’s return from retirement to face Jonathan Martinez, veteran Anthony Smith squaring off against the unbeaten Vitor Petrino, and Michel Pereira’s showdown with Ukraine’s Ihor Potieria. There are short-priced favourites on the card, so we have tried to highlight value by predicting the method of victory.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg

Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg

Australian bolter Steve Erceg heads into the lion’s den to challenge Brazilian flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja. See the full betting preview here.

Jonathan Martinez vs Jose Aldo

Jonathan Martiz vs Jose Aldo

Jonathan Martinez (19-4-0) has compiled a six-fight win streak that has propelled him into the top 15 of the bantamweight rankings. The 30-year-old has not graced the octagon for six months after scoring a leg-kick KO over Adrian Yanez. The American is a crisp striker with nine knockout finishes on his record, while his tight combinations also earn the favour of judging panels.

Jose Aldo (31-8-0) is known as the ‘King of Rio’, so it is only fitting that he returns from retirement at his hometown event. The 37-year-old held the UFC featherweight crown off and on from 2011 through 2016 and unsuccessfully challenged for the bantamweight title in 2020. It is hard to anticipate his condition after an 18-month break, but he will have the raucous local crowd at his back for this contest.

Anthony Smith vs Vitor Petrino

Anthony Smith vs Vitor Petrino

Anthony Smith (37-19-0) has endured more wars than almost any fighter on the UFC roster. The 35-year-old has just a single win from his last four appearances and must be drawing near the end of a career that began in 2008. At his best, the American combines powerful and rangy striking with a strong submission game, but he is coming off a nasty third-round knockout loss to Khalil Rountree and looks tested against a hungry up-and-comer here.

Vitor Petrino (11-0-0) has never tasted defeat as an MMA fighter and will enter this bout full of confidence. The Brazilian throws with bad intentions and will be hunting a KO win to send him into the light heavyweight division’s top 10. The 26-year-old is a short-priced favourite with online bookmakers to remain undefeated and claim his biggest scalp to date.

Michel Pereira vs Ihor Potieria

Michel Pereira vs Ihor Potieria

Michel Pereira (29-11-0) is on an impressive seven-fight win streak split across two weight divisions. The Brazilian was huge for the welterweight class and struggled to make the scales, but he has moved to middleweight for his last two contests and looks more at home. He faces a quick seven-week turnaround for this matchup after demanding a spot in front of his home fans and is widely expecting to keep the momentum rolling in Rio.

Ihor Potieria (20-5-0) is moving in the opposite direction in terms of weight classes, having recently dropped from light heavyweight to 185 pounds in the hope of finding a home for his power shots. The Ukrainian runs hot and cold with three wins and three losses coming from his last six outings. The 27-year-old can get a little loose in his attacks but does throw unorthodox strikes from angles that can be hard to read. That said, a win here would constitute a major upset.

Paul Craig vs Caio Borralho

Paul Craig vs Caio Barralho

Paul Craig (17-7-1) has fallen on hard times since 2022 with three losses and just a single win. The losses can be attributed to poor decision-making; he opted to strike with Johnny Walker and grapple with Brandon Allen, both poor strategic options. The Scot did deliver the first defeat to future light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill at UFC 263, landed while he was on a six-fight unbeaten streak between 2019 and 2022.

Caio Borralho (15-1-0) has not dropped a fight since 2015, winning five straight contests since making his UFC debut in 2022. The 31-year-old employs a sound defensive strategy and avoids risk whenever possible. He slides in and out of range, pleases the judges with solid output, and gets his hand raised. He owns a black belt in BJJ, negating Craig’s main weapon, and should be too slick on the feet in this slight mismatch.

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