UFC Fight Night 178: Covington vs Woodley betting tips

Covington vs Woodley UFC betting preview

Colby Covington (15-2-0) hasn’t fought since losing to Kamaru Usman in a UFC Welterweight Championship bout at UFC 245 back in December. Covington will try to get back on the path to another title shot with a win against Tyron Woodley (19-5-1) this Saturday night in the main event of UFC Fight Night 178 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Since losing for the first time in his professional career all the way back in December of 2015 to Warlley Alves, Covington has developed into one of the biggest stars in the UFC. Leaning into the villain role with his trash-talking and unabashed support of Donald Trump, Covington rose through the ranks of the welterweight division with seven straight wins en route to his title fight at UFC 245. Covington lost to Usman via TKO and will be returning to the octagon for the first time since that loss.

Woodley had a sensational run at the top of the welterweight division, winning the title at UFC 201 in 2016 and successfully defending it three times in the midst of a 6-0-1 run that spanned from 2014 through 2018. But since then, Woodley has been dominated in each of his last two matches; first against Usman when he lost the championship in 2019, and most recently in May when he lost to Gilbert Burns. 

The outcome of this fight may not be as clear as the UFC betting odds would indicate. Covington should definitely be favored; his high-volume striking and incredible cardio should be enough to wear the 39-year-old Woodley down and earn a victory on points. But on the other hand, Woodley historically has been an excellent counter-puncher and takedown defender, two skills that could make him a tough matchup for Covington.

Had we not just seen Woodley look so out-of-form against Burns, the odds on this fight would likely be a lot closer. There is value here on Woodley to score a surprise knockout, but the most likely outcome is a Covington victory. To save money on the heavy chalk, bet on Covington by decision; each of his last five wins have gone to the cards, and each of Woodley’s last four losses have as well.