UFC Fight Night 184 Prelim Card betting predictions

UFC Fight Night 184 prelims betting preview

The preliminary card for UFC Fight Night 184: Volkov vs Overeem has a total of seven scheduled bouts, so let’s not waste any time. Here are our best bets for Saturday night’s undercard at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Ode Osbourne (-214) vs Jerome Rivera (+184)

In the first matchup of the UFC Fight Night 184 prelim card, we have Ode Osbourne (8-3-0) taking on Jerome Rivera (10-4-0). Osbourne enters this fight off of a January 2020 submission loss to Brian Kelleher, and Rivera is fresh off of a January 2021 unanimous decision loss to Francisco Figueiredo. The lack of time between fights for Rivera could come to be an issue for him. Osbourne is 3-0 by KO/TKO, 4-2 via submission, and 1-1 by decision in his professional career. Rivera is 1-2 by KO/TKO, 6-1 by submission, and 3-1 by decision. It is an interesting fight because both men are moving up in weight since their last bouts. Osbourne is up from 135 pounds and Rivera 125 pounds. This large jump in classes for Rivera for this fight is because he was a late replacement for Osbourne’s original opponent, Denys Bondar. This should be a fun matchup with two guys who like to finish fights on the ground if they can. Osbourne looks like the rightful favorite in this fight. We take him straight up.

Timur Valiev (-375) vs Martin Day (+300)

In our second prelim bout, we have large favorite Timur Valiev (16-2-0) facing Martin Day (8-5-0). Valiev is coming off of an August 2020 no contest against Trevin Jones where the fight ended by TKO in favor of Jones but was later nullified due to a positive drug test. Day enters this fight after a November 2020 submission loss to Anderson Dos Santos. This seems to be a must-win fight in terms of future contracts for Day, as he is 0-3 since entering the UFC. Valiev is 5-0 by KO/TKO, 2-0 by submission, and 9-2 by decision overall. Day is 3-2 by KO/TKO, 2-1 by submission, and 3-2 by decision. Both fighters can win in any fashion, but we like Valiev by KO/TKO.

Seungwoo Choi (+200) vs Youssef Zalal (-235)

Our third featherweight fight of the night brings together Seungwoo Choi (8-3-0) and Youssef Zalal (10-3-0). Choi is coming off his first UFC win in December 2020, which came by unanimous decision over Suman Mokhtarian. Zalal recently suffered his first loss in four career UFC fights, going down to Ilia Topuria by unanimous decision in October 2020. Choi is 5-1 by KO/TKO, 0-1 by submission, and 3-1 by decision in his career. Zalal is 2-0 by KO/TKO, 5-0 by submission, and 3-3 by decision in his young career. Both fighters bring unique styles to the table, but we’re taking the taller and longer Choi in this one, straight up.

Molly McCann (-152) vs Lara Procopio (+132)

Molly McCann (10-3-0) is facing Lara Procopio (6-1-0) in the fourth fight on the prelim card. McCann’s last fight took place in July 2020, when she lost by unanimous decision to Taila Santos. Procopio is coming off a split decision loss in her August 2019 UFC debut against Karol Rosa. McCann is 4-0 by KO/TKO, 0-1 by submission, and 6-2 by decision overall. Procopio is 1-0 by KO/TKO, 2-0 by submission, and 3-1 by decision overall. We are leaning towards McCann in what should be an in-your-face boxing matchup.

Karol Rosa (-250) vs Joselyne Edwards (+210)

Karol Rosa (13-3-0) and Joselyne Edwards (10-2-0) are both looking to extend their winning streaks. Rosa is coming off of an August 2019 split decision win over Lara Procopio, as mentioned earlier. Edwards is fresh off her UFC debut in a January 2021 unanimous decision victory over Wu Yanan. Rosa is 4-0 by KO/TKO, 2-2 by submission, and 7-1 by decision in her career. Edwards is 5-0 by KO/TKO, 3-1 by submission, and 2-1 by decision. Even understanding the recency bias of Edwards’ last win, we like her to maintain momentum and move up as a UFC name. Take her straight up at these odds.

Devonte Smith (-300) vs Justin Jaynes (+250)

Our second-to-last prelim fight features Devonte Smith (10-2-0) taking on Justin Jaynes (16-6-0). Smith is coming off of an August 2019 first-round KO/TKO loss to Kama Worthy, and Jaynes a December 2020 KO/TKO loss to Gabriel Benitez. Before his loss to Worthy, Smith was 6-0 in his career and 2-0 in the UFC. Jaynes is on a two-fight skid, standing at 1-2 in the UFC so far. Smith is 9-2 by KO/TKO, 1-0 by submission, and 0-0 by decision overall. Jaynes is 8-1 by KO/TKO, 6-1 by submission, and 2-4 by decision in his career. It is hard to pick against the favorite in this spot, but we are wary of a sneaky upset since we have now seen that Smith can be knocked out. For this reason, we are looking at total rounds instead of backing either fighter to win. We see this one going under 1.5 rounds; Smith’s last five fights have ended in the first round, while six of Jayne’s last seven fights have ended that way as well. We believe Smith will win this fight, but not enough to bet on him at these odds.

Danilo Marques (+200) vs Mike Rodriguez (-235)

Danilo Marques (10-2-0) is taking on Mike Rodriguez (11-5-0) in a battle of light heavyweight hopefuls in last bout before the UFC Fight Night 184 main card gets underway. Marques is coming off of a September 2020 unanimous decision victory over Khadis Ibragimov, while Rodriguez enters the fight after losing to Ed Herman by submission last September as well. Marques is 4-1 by KO/TKO, 4-0 by submission, and 2-1 by decision. Rodriguez is 9-1 by KO/TKO, 2-2 by submission, and 0-2 by decision. If you believe Marques will win this fight, then the decision option is not a bad bet at +275 odds. But if the fight goes in favor of Rodriguez, as we expect it will, there is a good chance it will hit the under on 1.5 rounds and end by knockout.