UFC Fight Night 196 betting picks & top odds – October 23, 2021

Grant Dawson will be looking to extend his winning streak in the co-main event against Rick Glenn this Saturday night in Las Vegas. We’ll break down that matchup and the other four fights on the main card leading up to UFC Fight Night 196’s main event of Paolo Costa vs Marvin Vettori.

Lightweight: Grant Dawson (-350) vs Rick Glenn (+285)

Grant Dawson (17-1-0) suffered the first and only loss of his professional career back in April of 2016. Since then, Dawson is a perfect 8-0 including a 5-0 start in the UFC. Three of Dawson’s five UFC wins have come by finishes (two submission wins and one knockout) and 11 of his 17 career wins overall have been by way of submission.

Rick Glenn (22-6-1) enters this fight coming off of a first-round knockout win over Joaquim Silva. Glenn has had mixed results in the UFC with a 4-3-0 record since joining the promotion. Dawson’s solid groundwork and Glenn’s poor takedown defense make this look like a very favorable matchup for Dawson, who should either score the submission or just grind out an easy win on the cards.

Women’s Bantamweight: Jessica-Rose Clark (-146) vs Joselyne Edwards (+126)

Jessica-Rose Clark (10-6-0) snapped a two-fight losing streak with a knockout win over Sarah Alpar last September but also tore her ACL in that event. Joselyne Edwards (10-3-0) lost by decision to Karol Rosa in February in her second UFC fight after going 9-1 over her previous 10 bouts. Clark has the better pedigree here, but Edwards makes for a live dog option given that Clark’s ring rust could become a factor.

Featherweight: Seung Woo Choi (-290) vs Alex Caceres (+245)

Seung Woo Choi (10-3-0) has won each of his last three fights since opening his UFC career with a pair of losses. Alex Caceres (18-12-0) has put together a surprising four-fight winning streak since going 4-7 over his previous 11 UFC fights. It’s tempting to take a shot on Caceres at this price given his recent success, but Choi has passed the eye test of late and will likely leverage his superior power striking to a win in this matchup.

Welterweight: Francisco Trinaldo (-125) vs Dwight Grant (+105)

Francisco Trinaldo (26-8-0) had a three-fight win streak snapped with a loss to Muslim Salikhov in his last trip to the Octagon in June. Dwight Grant (11-3-0) picked up a split decision win over Stefan Sekulic in his last fight to improve to 3-2 in the UFC. This is an interesting bout between older fighters that could go either way, but we haven’t seen enough from Grant at the UFC level to trust him in this spot against the 43-year-old Trinaldo.

Light Heavyweight: Nicolae Negumereanu (-212) vs Ike Villanueva (+182)

Nicolae Negumereanu (10-1-0) bounced back from a loss in his UFC debut in March of 2019 with a victory over Aleksa Camur in June. Ike Villanueva (18-12-0) entered the UFC in 2020 with a 17-9 record and 14 knockouts, but has gone just 1-3 with the promotion with three knockout losses. This will be a race to the finish line in a bout very likely to end with someone getting knocked out; we’ll take a stab on the underdog finding the finishing blow first.