UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis prelims betting tips

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis prelims preview

Two heavyweight powerhouses will meet in this weekend’s UFC Fight Night main event. The prelim card is loaded for this highly anticipated matchup, with nine bouts in five different weight classes. Let’s dissect our picks and UFC betting predictions for the Blaydes vs Lewis prelim card.

Heavyweight: Sergey Spivak (-235) vs Jared Vanderaa (+200)

Our first prelim fight of the evening brings in two heavyweight hopefuls in Moldova’s Sergey Spivak (11-2-0, 2-2 UFC) and recent Dana White’s Contender Series competitor Jack Vanderaa (11-4-0, 0-0 UFC). Both are under the age of 30, but each has a decent number of fights under their belt. Spivak is coming off of a July 2020 majority decision victory over Carlos Felipe, who prior to the matchup was undefeated professionally and currently is on a two-fight UFC winning streak. Vanderaa is entering this fight on a two-fight win streak and most recently defeated Harry Hunsucker via KO/TKO in November 2020 on Dana White’s Contender Series, earning himself a UFC debut. Spivak is 4-1 by KO/TKO, 6-0 by submission, and 1-2 by decision in his career. Vanderaa is 7-0 by KO/TKO, 3-2 by submission, and 1-2 by decision. We like Spivak in this spot by submission.

Bantamweight: Aiemann Zahabi (+156) vs Drako Rodriguez (-181)

In our second prelim bout, Aiemann Zahabi (7-2-0, 1-2 UFC) takes on Drako Rodriguez (7-1-0, 0-0 UFC). This fight features another debutant in Rodriguez, who is coming off of a September 2020 submission win over Mana Martinez in Dana White’s Contender Series. Zahabi is on a two-fight skid, dropping his last fight in May 2019 to Vince Morales by unanimous decision. There is a large age-gap between the two fighters, with Zahabi (33) being nine years older than Rodriguez (24). Zahabi is 4-1 by KO/TKO, 2-0 by submission, and 1-1 by decision in his career. Rodriguez is 2-1 by KO/TKO, 4-0 by submission, and 1-0 by decision. It has been close to two years since Zahabi has been in the octagon, and the last time he fought with that kind of gap, he was defeated. We like Rodriguez straight up to win his UFC debut.

Featherweight: Chas Skelly (+195) vs Jamall Emmers (-230)

Our first featherweight bout features Chas Skelly (18-3-0, 7-3 UFC) and Jamall Emmers (18-5-0, 1-1 UFC). Both men are over 30 years old, so some experience is being brought to the table. Skelly is coming off a September 2019 unanimous decision victory over Jordan Griffin, while Emmers is entering this contest after an August 2020 unanimous decision victory over Vince Cachero. Skelly is skilled on the ground, being 10-0 by submission in his career. He is also 3-1 by KO/TKO and 5-2 by decision historically. Emmers is 7-2 by KO/TKO, 3-1 by submission, and 8-2 by decision. Skelly has the ability to control this fight if he can get it to the ground, and it is our belief he can do so. Take the upset.

Women’s Flyweight: Shana Dobson (+135) vs Casey O’Neill (-155)

Another UFC debut, this time in the women’s flyweight division as Casey O’Neill (5-0-0, 0-0 UFC) takes on Shana Dobson (4-4-0, 1-3 UFC). O’Neill is entering on a five-fight win streak, three of which were title fights in the Eternal MMA organization. Her most recent fight was a September 2020 KO/TKO victory over Christina Stelliou in the Abu Dhabi Warriors organization. Dobson recently ended a three-fight UFC skid with an August 2020 KO/TKO win over Maria Agapova. O’Neill is 1-0 by KO/TKO, 1-0 by submission, and 3-0 by decision in her young career, while Dobson is 2-1 by KO/TKO, 0-0 by submission, and 2-3 by decision. We like the hopeful O’Neill to come away with her first UFC victory.

Featherweight: Rafael Alves (-185) vs Pat Sabatini (+160)

Another featherweight bout brings us Rafael Alves (19-9-0, 0-0 UFC) taking on Pat Sabatini (13-3-0, 0-0 UFC). With both men making their UFC debut, this should be interesting. Alves is on an impressive five-fight win streak, with his last victory being a submission over Alejandro Flores on Dana White’s Contender Series in August 2020. Sabatini is on a two-fight win streak, with his last fight being a December 2020 submission win over Jesse Stirn. Sabatini’s main organization his last five fights has been the Cage Fury Fighting Championship (CFFC). Alves is a jack of all trades, going 7-3 by KO/TKO, 7-6 by submission, and 5-0 by decision in his career. Sabatini is 2-1 by KO/TKO, 9-0 by submission, and 2-2 by decision. Both men are 30 years old and want to make a name in the UFC – so much so, Sabatini took this fight on short notice after Alves’s original opponent, Mike Trizano, was unable to compete. We like Sabatini to pull off the upset, short notice and all.

Featherweight: Nate Landwehr (-122) vs Julian Erosa (+102)

Another featherweight bout brings together Nate Landwehr (14-3-0, 1-1 UFC) and Julian Erosa (24-9-0, 1-4 UFC). These men both aren’t afraid to scrap and earn their wins. Landwehr is coming off of a competitive May 2020 unanimous decision win over Darren Elkins, while Erosa is coming off a huge upset in a June 2020 submission win over Sean Woodson. Landwehr is 8-1 by KO/TKO, 0-1 by submission, and 6-1 by decision in his career. Erosa is 10-5 by KO/TKO, 11-0 by submission, and 3-4 by decision. This is an exciting fight to keep an eye out for, regardless of sports betting angles. Our betting pick here is the former M-1 Champ in Landwehr. Look at a decision bet due to the durability of Erosa.

Bantamweight: Eddie Wineland (+101) vs John Castaneda (-121)

Our second bantamweight bout of the night stacks Eddie Wineland (24-14-1, 6-8 UFC) against John Castaneda (17-5-0, 0-1 UFC). Wineland is coming off a June 2020 KO/TKO loss to the hyped Sean O’Malley, while Castaneda enter from a July 2020 unanimous decision loss to Nathaniel Wood. Wineland is a seasoned bantamweight, going 14-4 by KO/TKO, 5-4 by submission, and 5-6-1 by decision in his career. Castaneda is 7-1 by KO/TKO, 5-0 by submission, and 5-4 by decision. From the looks of it, the route that best suits Wineland is a knockout victory, because if it goes to decision, we believe it favors Castaneda. Nonetheless, our betting pick is Castaneda straight up.

Lightweight: Drakkar Klose (-174) vs Luis Pena (+149)

In our second-to-last prelim fight, Luis “Violent Bob Ross” Pena (8-3-0, 3-3 UFC) makes his return to the octagon to face Drakkar Klose (11-2-1, 4-2 UFC). Pena is coming off a June 2020 submission loss to Kama Worthy, and Klose’s most recent fight was a March 2020 KO/TKO loss to Beneil Dariush. Pena has a reach advantage of five inches and a height advantage of four. Klose is 4-1 by KO/TKO, 0-0 by submission, and 7-1-1 by decision in his career, while Pena is 2-0 by KO/TKO, 4-1 by submission, and 2-2 by decision. It seems likely that this one will go to decision, and online bookmakers believe the same as it stands at -210. Through the last five years, all of Klose’s wins have come by decision, and he’s never been submitted. This could take away a potential Pena-by-submission play. For this reason, we are going with Klose by decision.

Featherweight: Danny Chavez (-146) vs Jared Gordon (+126)

Our final prelim bout of the night is a featherweight matchup between Danny Chavez (11-3-0, 1-0 UFC) and Jared Gordon (16-4-0, 4-3 UFC). Gordon is coming off a July 2020 unanimous decision victory over Chris Fishgold, and Chavez defeated TJ Brown by unanimous decision in his UFC debut in August 2020. Gordon is 6-4 by KO/TKO, 2-0 by submission, and 8-0 by decision in his career, while Chavez is 3-0 by KO/TKO, 0-1 by submission, and 8-2 by decision. This fight is hard to call, but we like Gordon straight up.