UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales preview & betting picks

Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales headline an exciting UFC Fight Night card in Las Vegas this Saturday night. Below are BettingPlanet’s fight previews and top picks for every bout on the main card, with odds from the top UFC betting sites in United States.

Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales

Gilbert Burns (22-8-0) is coming off a three-fight losing streak to high-quality opponents Jack Della Maddalena, Belal Muhammad, and Sean Brady. As a result, top UFC bookmakers think the former title contender has run out of gas, with long odds of +500 in this fight.

He is an incredibly well-rounded fighter who has shown he can win in many ways across his UFC career. If he can pull off an upset, he will need to be strong across all levels while using his experience in five-round fights.

Michael Morales (17-0-0) has been practically perfect through his UFC career so far. With a substantial eight-inch reach advantage, expect him to keep this fight at distance where he can use his wide array of punches and kicks while staying away from his weaker ground game.

Morales will be much faster in this fight and should be able to keep it on the feet for the duration. The question really is whether Morales can secure a knockout or hold out for a decision. Given Burns has only been knocked out by Della Maddalena in his last seven fights, back this fight to go the distance.

Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato

Paul Craig (17-9-1) is coming off an unsuccessful run at middleweight, with losses to Brendan Allen, Caio Borralho, and Bo Nickal. However, as he returns to light heavyweight, he brings world-class submission skills, as shown by his win over current champion Magomed Ankalaev. The 37-year-old has a wealth of experience over his opponent, which should favor him if the fight goes the distance.

Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1) is coming off a majority draw with Jimmy Crute, where his striking volume and accuracy stood out. In this bout, expect the simple strategy of keeping this fight on the feet. Bellato has an 85% takedown defense and has a clear advantage in the striking game. In the end, this fight should come down to one takedown or one big strike.

Bellato will come hard early with a flurry of shots, and if Craig can hold out, he will have the advantage going into the later rounds. But with five losses in his last six fights, expect Craig to be on the wrong side of this one, with Bellato’s power proving too strong.

Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos

Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) made a strong start to his UFC career, but back-to-back losses against Diego Lopes and Edson Barboza have him looking to get back on track. While he is a well-rounded fighter, the 32-year-old is most known for his kickboxing as he delivers strong combinations and high volume.

Mairon Santos (16-1-0) has looked very solid through his first two UFC fights, with his use of range and timing his biggest threats. He is incredibly fast when striking and evading, while he offers up a wide array of punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. However, wrestling and grappling are not his strong suit.

While Santos is undefeated in the UFC, his game is set to be stretched in this fight. A gritty, experienced fighter such as Yusuff will have learned from his losses to the top lightweight fighters and he offers great value as the underdog.

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Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev

Dustin Stoltzfus (16-6-0) has had an inconsistent time in the UFC, alternating between wins and losses in his last six fights. While he is a notable striker, the American has a clear advantage in his wrestling and grappling game — something he will need to secure a result in this fight.

Nursulton Ruziboev (35-9-2) is a knockout machine, with three finishes in his three UFC middleweight fights. The 31-year-old has the advantage in size, power, and explosiveness, while his accuracy is notably high compared to the rest of the division. Additionally, he shows strong versatility with an impressive takedown defense.

This bout looks set to head in one direction as Ruziboev continues his charge through the middleweight division. He has finished all three of his wins inside 1.5 rounds, so back him to do it again.

Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa

Julian Erosa (31-12-0) is a veteran of the UFC, yet his current form is the best we have seen yet, with three first-round finishes coming into this fight. The American is known for his aggressive style, making him dangerous early, but also leaving him vulnerable defensively. At 35, he might be slowing down — something that will favor his younger opponent.

Melquizael Costa (23-7-0) is a balanced fighter who also enters on a three-fight win streak. It’s hard to describe his fight style as anything other than inconsistent, but he often gains ascendancy on the ground, while his fitness is a key asset. However, precision and control are two aspects the Brazilian needs to improve.

While both fighters have a strong ground game, Erosa’s striking should be the difference in this fight. He has more power and is known for picking his shots, so take him as the underdog at +145 with major sport betting sites.