UFC Vegas 16: Hermansson vs Vettori betting tips & odds

UFC Vegas 16 main event preview

Jack Hermansson (21-5-0) was originally scheduled to fight Darren Till in the main event of UFC Vegas 16 before Till was forced to withdraw with an injury. Till’s replacement, Kevin Holland, also had to withdraw from the main event after testing positive for COVID-19. Now Hermansson is set to take on Marvin Vettori (15-4-1) this Saturday night.

Despite being ranked nine spots lower than Hermansson in the official UFC Middleweight rankings, Vettori finds himself going off as the favorite at UFC betting sites in this one. Vettori has earned wins in each of his last three fights against Cezar Ferreira, Andrew Sanchez, and Karl Roberson, and his last loss came in a split-decision defeat to Israel Adesanya that has aged well given how strong of a fighter Adesanya has proven to be.

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Hermansson won four straight fights before getting knocked out by Jared Cannonier in September of 2019. He bounced back with an impressive first-round victory over Kelvin Gastelum in July and is now 7-2 over his last nine UFC fights. Both of Hermannson’s losses over that stretch have come by way of knockout, which shouldn’t be too big of a concern against Vettori.

This is an interesting matchup. Vettori is an awesome prospect that likely has a bright future with the UFC. He is unproven to date and has a far less impressive resume than Hermansson, but his close fight against Adesanya proved that he could hang with the best. That fight came back in 2018 when Adesanya wasn’t as polished as he is now, but he was still undefeated and extremely talented back then.

But for as solid of a fighter as Vettori is, and as much of a trap line as this feels like, laying chalk against a fighter of Hermansson’s caliber in this spot feels insane. Vettori’s well-rounded game and takedown defense should make him a tough out, but in a five-round fight, look for Hermansson to eventually take control on the mat and claw out a tough victory.