UFC Vegas 38 main card preview & betting picks – 2/10/2021

Kevin Holland vs Kyle Daukaus in the co-main event this Saturday night highlights a strong UFC Vegas 38 card. Here are our top betting picks for the four fights leading up to the main event of Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker.

Middleweight: Kevin Holland (-155) vs Kyle Daukaus (+135)

Kevin Holland (21-7-0) had as impressive of a 2020 as any fighter in the UFC with a 5-0 record and four knockouts. His five wins in 2020 tied the UFC record for most wins in a calendar year. But 2021 has not gone as well for Holland as he has suffered back-to-back losses to Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori.

Kyle Daukaus (10-2-0) was a hot prospect in 2020 when he entered the UFC with a 9-0 record. He is off to a disappointing 1-2 start with the promotion, however, after suffering losses to Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes. Holland may have lost some momentum this year with his losses to Brunson and Vettori, but they are two of the top five middleweights in the UFC. He should get back to his winning ways in this matchup and is getting a great discounted price to do so.

Welterweight: Niko Price (-160) vs Alex Oliveira (+140)

Niko Price (14-5-0) is 2-4-1 over his last seven fights, though his official record over that stretch is 2-4 as his majority draw against Donald Cerrone was overturned after a positive drug test. Alex Oliveira (22-10-1) has also lost each of his last two fights (both via first round submission) and is 2-5 over his last seven.

Oliveira’s biggest weakness is his submission defense with six of his 10 career losses coming by submission. Against a fighter like Price who isn’t much of a submission threat, he should have a puncher’s chance at an upset. We’ll take him to come out on top of what should be a fun welterweight slugfest between these two aggressive strikers.

Middleweight: Krzysztof Jotko (-148) vs Misha Cirkunov (+128)

Krzysztof Jotko (22-5-0) had a three-fight winning streak snapped in a decision loss to Sean Strickland in May. Misha Cirkunov (15-6-0) was knocked out by Ryan Spann in his last bout, falling to 2-4 over his last six fights since going 8-0 in his previous eight fights. All four of those recent losses have come by way of knockout.

Fortunately for Cirkunov, Jotko does not really have knockout power with only six knockout wins in his career and just one at the UFC level. This should give the submission specialist the freedom to look for a takedown and go to work without his weak jaw becoming a problem. The underdog is well worth a shot at this price.

Women’s Bantamweight: Aspen Ladd (-258) vs Macy Chiasson (+218)

Aspen Ladd (9-1-0) makes her long awaited return to the octagon for her first match since December of 2019. Macy Chiasson (7-1-0) hasn’t really faced any tough competition in the UFC but has made the most of the fights she has received with a 4-1 record in her first five fights with the promotion. It is always tough to cap fighters off of long layoffs, but assuming Ladd is in similar form to what she was when we last saw her, she should have no trouble earning the win in her return.