US Open women’s semifinals betting picks | September 4, 2025

We are down to the final four in the 2025 US Open women’s singles, with two blockbuster clashes set for Thursday, September 4.

World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka will have to deal with a parochial New York crowd when she faces local star Jessica Pegula in a rematch of last year’s US Open final, while Amanda Anisimova will also be flying the flag for the United States when she takes on a rejuvenated Naomi Osaka.

BettingPlanet.com has taken a good look at both matches and come up with the best bets for what promises to be a cracking day of US Open tennis action at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

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Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula

Sabalenka avoided a tricky prospect in the quarterfinals when Marketa Vondrousova was forced to give a walkover after sustaining an injury in training. At this stage of the tournament, that extra rest time could prove invaluable.

Pegula will be determined to make up for last year’s US Open final defeat, where she was competitive without taking a set. The Buffalo native has hardly put a foot wrong in this campaign, as highlighted in her impressive 6-3, 6-3 victory over two-time major winner Barbora Krejcikova in the last eight.

Sabalenka has won seven of her nine meetings with Pegula — all in straight sets, albeit with high game tallies. Taking the outsider to cover the +4.5 games handicap (-125) is a solid bet, while over 9.5 games in the first set (+110) is also tempting, but Sabalenka to win 2-0 looks the play at -111.11 with the top tennis betting sites.

Naomi Osaka v Amanda Anisimova

Revenge doesn’t come much sweeter than Anisimova’s 6-4, 6-3 quarterfinal victory over Iga Swiatek, who famously demolished the American in the Wimbledon final earlier this year. The No.8 seed has dropped just one set at the 2025 US Open and will ride a wave of momentum and vocal home support into the semis.

Osaka has been similarly impressive, taking out No.3 seed Coco Gauff in the fourth round and then overcoming a dogged Karolina Muchova in two hard-fought sets. While the Japanese star is a four-time major winner, this is easily her best run at a Grand Slam since winning the 2021 Australian Open.

Anisimova is 2-0 up in the head-to-head standings, with both clashes taking place in 2022. Osaka appears to be in a much better headspace than she was back then, and the latest US Open betting odds have her as a slight favorite to win this. The over on the total games line would be tempting if it was a point shorter than 22.5, so it might be a case of simply siding with a player who’s been there and done it.