Wimbledon 2025 betting tips & predictions | Men’s semi-finals preview

Two blockbuster men’s semi-finals await at Wimbledon 2025 in London on Friday as Jannik Sinner takes on Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz faces Taylor Fritz.

With the tournament just two matches away from rematch between the world No.1 and the defending champion, can either Djokovic or Fritz spoil the party?

Below are our top Wimbledon betting picks for July 11, with tennis odds from the top sportsbooks in United States.

Jannik Sinner v Novak Djokovic

When Sinner and Djokovic meet on Friday, one streak must end: either Sinner’s four wins in a row over the Serbian, or Djokovic’s six-straight Wimbledon final appearances.

Sinner has undeniably had Djokovic’s number the past 18 months. Their past two meetings — the most recent of which was at Roland-Garros in June — have both ended in straight sets the 23-year-old’s way. More concerningly for Djokovic, he has looked at sea when it comes to breaking Sinner’s serve, doing so just once in the last nine sets they have played.

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This paints a rough picture for those looking to take Djokovic’s +175 odds of winning this semi-final. However, the argument in the 38-year-old’s favor is what grass does for his game. Djokovic’s physical decline is mitigated by the speed of the surface, which enhances his more aggressive style of play. Throw in his one-of-a-kind movement and brilliant spot serving, and on grass Djokovic has his best chance to defeat Sinner.

In his last two major appearances, Djokovic has shown the ability to defy expectations across bookmakers at least once per tournament, upsetting Carlos Alcaraz in Melbourne and Alexander Zverev in Paris. Our prediction is the 24-time Grand Slam champion does so once more, edging out Sinner in four tight sets to keep his Wimbledon final steak alive.

As for the best bets, Djokovic winning is the logical play. For those after higher returns, Djokovic winning 3-1 (+550) is a lucrative bet, as is the Serb prevailing in over 37.5 games total (+290).

Carlos Alcaraz v Taylor Fritz

After some early-tournament mayhem in the bottom half of the men’s draw, a predictable semi-final takes place as defending champion Alcaraz looks to keep his 23-match winning streak alive against fourth seed Fritz.

The American is in fine form, having survived back-to-back five-setters across the opening two rounds. He is 13-1 on grass this season with titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne and, on paper, should challenge Alcaraz.

However, the Spaniard’s game is the perfect antidote to Fritz. Alcaraz is the king of variation, with a complete weaponry when it comes to mixing up the height, bounce and length of the balls he delivers to his opponents. Fritz is the epitome of a rhythm player: big, powerful groundstrokes from the baseline set up by a dominant serve. When he is constantly fed variation, he can struggle to fire on all cylinders. 

Fritz will still be reliable behind his serve, but expect Alcaraz to crack him eventually, leading to a reasonably comfortable win for the second seed.

Tennis betting sites are offering +145 odds for one tiebreaker to be played — an excellent price given Fritz has played six already this tournament. Those after even more bang for their buck could look at a +240 bet on Alcaraz winning 3-1, considering the Spaniard has dropped sets in three of his five matches at Wimbledon this year.

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