NL East 2022 season preview, outright odds & predictions

To no one’s surprise, the MLB owners and MLB Players Association did not come to an agreement ahead of the owners’ self-imposed deadline. This indecision has officially led to the first two series of the 2022 MLB season being cancelled.

If the two sides can come to an agreement soon, these games can be made up through double-headers and squeezing in games when teams would originally have a day off but the clock is certainly ticking. The longer this goes on, the less baseball we’re likely to have in 2022.

With all that being said, the odds are that there will be a baseball season this year at some point, and the National League East is one of the more interesting divisions in the MLB.

NL East outright odds

• Atlanta Braves +135
• New York Mets +140
• Philadelphia Phillies +600
• Miami Marlins +1100
• Washington Nationals +5000

All odds courtesy of Bovada

Atlanta Braves

Fresh off a World Series Championship the Braves are only slight favorites over the Mets to win the NL East. With Ronald Acuna Jr returning, Ozzie Albies and the emergence of Austin Riley last season, the odds seem to have a lot to do with the uncertain future of Freddie Freeman. It was once believed that there was no way the Braves would allow Freeman to walk in free agency but here we are. It was reported last week that the Braves odds of retaining Freeman are decreasing with each passing day. As Freeman is rumored to be in contact with teams like the Dodgers and Yankees, it seems like the market price for Freeman has gone up since talks began and maybe out of the Braves price range. Freeman should’ve never been allowed to reach free agency in the first place, but that’s another story for another day.

The sudden hole at first base and in the middle of the Braves lineup becomes there only weakness should Freeman actually leave in free agency. They’re deep in ever aspect from starting rotation to bullpen to lineup even without the slugging first basemen. The Braves still being favored to win what looks to be a tough division despite losing one of the league’s top players only speaks to the job that Alex Anthopoulos has done in Atlanta. The Braves +135 is on the safer side.

New York Mets

How about the Mets? This time last year the Mets were favored to win the NL East after an offseason in which they were ridded of the Wilpons in favor of Steve Cohen, who has shown he wants to win now. The Mets added Francisco Lindor last offseason and suddenly looked to have a very scary roster on paper. Despite all the hype, the Mets did what the Mets have done for a number of years: under-perform. They finished last season with a 77-85 record good for third in the standings. Cohen has taken to social media and really any kind of media to voice his frustration and displeasure for the team’s lack of success last season. Cohen put his money where his mouth was and signed Max Scherzer to pair with Jacob DeGrom. Cohen and new general manager Billy Epler, also added a proven manager in Buck Showalter, as well as a slough of players including Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar this offseason as they look to make a run at the World Series.

All of that sounds great but let’s remember at the end of the day we’re talking about the Mets. An organization that has failed time and time again at building a consistent winner despite spending big. It’s been proven many times that money doesn’t result in wins. Despite spending big yet again this offseason, we all need to see the Mets do it before we feel confident putting our hard earned money on them. There is definitely a chance that the Mets win with Scherzer and DeGrom pitching together, but they need to prove it first and +140 odds aren’t good enough to risk money on the Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have the second longest playoff drought in all of baseball. It doesn’t seem like that long ago that the Phillies we’re running out the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins while making run after run at the NL East and beyond. The Phillies have fallen off and after a long drawn out rebuild, have yet to reach the playoffs despite major hype around them. The Phillies are the home of the reigning NL MVP and the runner-up in the NL Cy Young Award, but they still finished just a game above .500 last year.

Philadelphia has some very nice pieces with Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Jean Segura and Didi Gregorious all led by World Series winning manager Joe Girardi. For some reason it just seems like the Phillies are cursed for mediocrity. The “stupid money” Phillies didn’t do enough in free agency prior to the lockout to warrant making an argument for them winning the NL East.

On paper, they are the third best team in the NL East, but +600 odds feel like more of a bang for your buck than the Mets at +140. Year after year it seems like the NL East is going to be an unstoppable division but it seems like they spend too much time beating up on each other every year netting them only the division winner in the playoffs. If you’re looking at long shots that have a chance, the Phillies are at the top of that list. If Alec Bohm finds the success he found in his rookie season, Wheeler and Harper continue to be top players in the league and Nola regains his success of year’s past, the Phillies will have a nice team. It’s possible but definitely unlikely.

Miami Marlins

In the pandemic shortened season of 2020, the Marlins exploded onto the scene catching everyone by surprise and finding a way to make it into the post season. Miami has done a great job of developing a promising young pitching core, but haven’t found the same success in developing position players just yet. For the Marlins to contend in the NL East, they must take the same approach as the Braves. They do not have the deep pockets to spend in free agency like the Mets and the Phillies so they need to continue to build from within which is something that the Braves have done a phenomenal job at. The Marlins must continue to develop pitching but bring that success into the lineup.

The Marlins lineup is the question mark here, there aren’t a lot of names that can produce runs. If they can find some luck in the lineup, it wouldn’t be a surprise for the Marlins to find a way into the wildcard spot, but they surely don’t look to be on the same level as the three teams above them. The +1100 seems about right where the Marlins should be.

Washington Nationals

Just three year’s ago the Nationals were at on top of the world as they beat the Houston Astros to take home their first ever World Series trophy. They have fallen off drastically, losing the likes of Scherzer, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman since that magical season.

The Nationals failed to reach the postseason in the shortened 2020 season and looked even worse last year in 2021. In fact, they found themselves as sellers at the trade deadline and parted ways with their two best players in Scherzer and Turner. While the Nationals haven’t looked nearly as dominant since their World Series victory, they still have some young and talented players at the major league level, mainly Juan Soto. The Nationals reportedly offered Soto a 13-year $350 million contract this offseason, but Soto declined. Soto has spoken about his desire to win again and right now, that future is uncertain in DC. The Nationals own the 30th ranked farm system in the MLB.

It almost certainly won’t be the Nationals who take home the NL East crown this season, and the organization could be in for some tough days ahead if they can’t figure out how to build the farm system.

MORE MLB NEWS & PICKS:

• AL East 2022 preview
• AL Central 2022 preview
• AL West 2022 preview