Adelaide v Melbourne AFL Thursday betting picks | Round 4, 2024

Adelaide Crows v Melbourne Demons best bets

Round 4: Adelaide v Melbourne AFL match preview

The Crows are hoping to notch their maiden wins of the 2024 AFL season when they host Melbourne at the Adelaide Oval on Thursday night to kick off Gather Round.

Adelaide travelled west to tackle the depleted Dockers in round three with high hopes but suffered a fourth-quarter fade to lose by 35 points. The Crows were soundly beaten on most of the key stats, including tackles, contested marks, inside 50s, and stoppage clearances. The most damning number for the Crows was efficiency inside 50, where they laboured to a mere 31% and kicked four goals for the entire match.

Adding further pressure to the struggling Adelaide attack, small forward Lachie Murphy knocked his knee against the Dockers and could miss this week. On the defensive end, Wayne Milera is set to miss the rest of the season with a ruptured patella. This may force the Crows to move Rory Laird back to cover the hole.

Melbourne’s mettle was tested in a seesawing battle against Port Adelaide in round three, but they prevailed by seven points after a five-goal flurry in the final quarter. The Demons trailed on many of the key stats but kicked truly when it counted to generate a winning score from 21 fewer inside 50s and 25 fewer clearances.

Melbourne are hopeful of welcoming back All-Australian defender Steven May after he fractured ribs in round two. Kade Chandler will face a fitness test before kickoff but appears likely to start this game. Clayton Oliver carries a hand injury but came through the Port game unscathed with the aid of a protective glove. Ben Brown pulled up with some knee soreness after his fourth-quarter heroics but should be good to run onto the park.

Crows v Demons AFL R4 betting strategy

While the Demons have an obvious edge on form, this should be an even contest. Pressure is mounting on Adelaide, particularly with the Gather Round promotion, and they should come out fighting. However, they look to lack the polish and class of the Demons, who should do enough to win it by 39 points or less at +116 with Bovada.

Given Adelaide’s inability to kick a big score this season, this could be a low-scoring contest. The Crows have shortened in AFL betting markets for this match, and they should scrap hard for long portions. Online bookmakers have the total points line set at 169.5, and we are taking the unders.

Adelaide midfielder Jake Soligo showed a glimpse of his potential against the Cats in round two with 15 disposals, three tackles, and one goal. The 21-year-old is still finding his groove but can get the footy and kick truly when required. At +190 odds, he is worth a look in the anytime goalscorer market.

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