Geelong v St Kilda AFL R1 betting picks | Saturday, March 16

Geelong v St Kilda AFL R1 best bets

Cats v Saints AFL R1 match preview

Round one of the 2024 AFL Premiership season continues this weekend as the Geelong Cats host the St Kilda Saints at GMHBA Stadium.

After a disappointing 2023, Chris Scott’s men head into the new season full of hope with a side that is largely the same as when they won the premiership two seasons ago. Concerns about the age of the list remain, but unlike last season, the Cats enter the season with only veteran pair Cam Guthrie (quad) and Gary Rohan (back) on the injury list.

Expect a more youthful midfield look for the Cats midfield in 2024, with Max Holmes, Tanner Bruhn and Jhye Clark all impressing during the pre-season. It was a fairly inactive off-season for Geelong, so don’t expect many new faces — although mature-aged pickup Shaun Mannagh is likely to feature early in the year.

The Saints had a solid start to Ross Lyon’s second tenure at the club in 2023, but despite exceeding expectations, they will still feel disappointed by the way their season ended. Finishing as the best defensive side in the AFL last year, expect a similar gameplan in 2024.

Unlike the Cats, the Saints have an extensive injury list to start the season, with new recruit Paddy Dow headlining a list of five best-22 players out through injury. Veteran defender Jimmy Webster is suspended, while two-time All-Australian Jack Sinclair is in doubt with a calf problem.

First-round draft pick Darcy Wilson is confirmed to make his AFL debut on Saturday, while Liam Henry and Riley Bonner are set to play their first match for St Kilda.

Geelong v St Kilda AFL R1 betting strategy

The fixture couldn’t have started much harder for the Saints, who haven’t won in Geelong since 1999. While the Cats have the potential to contest with the top sides in the competition, with minimal changes to their side from last year, it is hard to see any major improvement this season. Top AFL bookmakers have the Saints coming in as the underdogs, so take them to cover the line of +12.5 at -111.11 in what shapes as a close game.

In a disappointing performance against the Saints in round 23 last year, Geelong defender Tom Stewart was a standout with 30 disposals and 13 marks. With a Saints forward line that lacks height, expect Stewart to start the season strongly after collecting his fifth All-Australian jacket last year. At +155 with Bovada, the Geelong defender is great value to have 25 or more disposals.

St Kilda captain Jack Steele will be looking to make a statement to start the season against the inexperienced Geelong midfield. Despite a disappointing 2023, Steele showed his quality with a 38-disposal performance in their final match, reminding us that he can be one of the premier midfielders in the AFL. With odds of +115 to collect 25 or more disposals, Steele offers great value for a player that will be around the contest all day.

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