Where to look for value in the MLB antepost this summer

When it comes to Major League Baseball right now, you have to like teams in the antepost divisional markets that are in first place and yet still considered underdogs.

Now in mid-June, it’s not like teams have not played a meaningful number of games in their schedules. Winning percentages can be taken seriously, even for teams that have odds in the various markets that would suggest they aren’t very good.

With divisional antepost bets, sports pundits should understand that these are markets that should be distinguished from playoff antepost. Bets on the World Series, whether to make it that far or to win it, are bets that include playoff results in October. However, divisional antepost includes only the regular season: these markets are settled ahead of the playoffs.

One team that is in first place in their division (standings accurate prior to June 13th’s games) that still has underdog odds is Seattle. The Mariners enter Wednesday’s games in the United States with a 43-24 record. If the Los Angeles Dodgers did that everyone would be talking about how strong they are. With Seattle, no one is taking them too seriously yet.

Why would Seattle be considered an underdog at this point? They share a division with the Houston Astros, the defending World Series champions. Defending champions always seem to attract bets and perhaps that’s what has caused the odds to stay long on Seattle, despite a very good winning percentage.

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The Mariners can be found at +450 with William Hill to win the American League West. As a contrast, Houston is a tough sell for value. They are behind Seattle in the standings but can be found at just $1.20 to win the division over the long term. While the defending champs may very well outplay Seattle, it’s better to go with the team with the long odds in this case.

Another team in first place in their division and yet considered an underdog is Arizona. They are the 2nd favorite with Bovada, priced at +225 to win the National League West. The Los Angeles Dodgers, NL champs a year ago, are the outright favorites despite a deficit in the standings through two-and-a-half months. They are priced about the same as Arizona but with the D’backs you get an edge in the standings at this point.

There are other teams to look at in antepost but Seattle and Arizona are the two special ones. They are the ones atop their divisions right now that are priced to be picked.

Other division leaders have odds that are easily ignorable. For instance, Cleveland leads the AL Central division but odds of -2000 at Bovada to prevail over the months ahead simply can’t be touched. Take Seattle at +450 with William Hill.