It’s that time of year again.
The most coveted individual medal in the AFL is up for grabs next Monday night.
Fremantle superstar Nat Fyfe is still the hot favourite, despite missing several games with injury.
And our mates at CrownBet will be hoping he does get home, considering they paid out on him as winner after round eight, given his blistering start to the season.
Reigning Brownlow Medallist Matt Priddis is the second favourite, the Eagles star putting together a statistically better season than last year.
Will he or won’t he leave Adelaide star Patrick Dangerfield is the only other player in single figures in most markets.
Our AFL heads Dominic Ciconte and Mike Randall usually get together for a parma and a pot and talk turkey about the Brownlow.
Although Dom is on hiatus in Spain, the joys of the internet will allow us to bestow their Brownlow Medal ramblings.
See if they can’t tip a winner through it all.
Michael Randall: Maaaaaate, another year, another Brownlow. But it’s over right? I mean Crownbet already paid out on Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe… in May.
Dominic Ciconte: Hey, beautiful. Six weeks ago I would have told you the count was going to be a flop, BUT, I think 2015 may have a surprise in store.
MR: Beautiful? I think you might be mistaking me for a certain Spanish filly you’ve been romancing on your sojourn… Anyway, I don’t think the CrownBet boys were counting on Fyfe missing those late games when they forked out. But they’re talking him up as best on ground in what, eight of the first 10 games?
DC: hahaha. I can certainly recommend Barcelona during a cold Melbourne winter. I would say that of the eight ‘certainties’, I reckon he will poll three votes in at least six of them, and minors in the others. He’s still the absolute moral of the night, but his last month of football has given a few others a sniff. Have you got Fyfe by the length of Flemington straight? Or are you tipping a close one?
MR: Being realistic, Fyfe should have been suspended and the $2 with CrownBet.com.au is way too short for my liking. And you know me, I’m always on the underdog. You will recall my tip from last year???
DC: Hahaha. Didn’t think it would take you long to bring that up – well done on tipping the West Coast Eagles’ Matt Priddis last year. A few would have cleaned up on him at long odds.
MR: Well, considering I’ve mentioned it to you each fortnight since Brownlow night last year, you could hardly forget.
DC: Yeah, yeah, stop living in the past, Mike. Back to this year and I think Fyfe’s Brownlow hype almost certainly made the tribunal look at his three separate cases differently in my opinion.
MR: I agree. They were worried about suspending the favourite – but it would have blown the race wide open.
DC: Just like poor old Gold Coast Suns gun Gary Ablett Jr last year. Could this be the second consecutive year the bookmakers pay out on a loser?
If not Freo’s Nathan Fyfe, than who?
DC: So, who’s your number one tip in the market without Fyfe then?
MR: Look, you’re gonna bag me on this one, but I really can’t go past Sam Mitchell at the $12 with WilliamHill.com.au. He’s come close a few times, but I don’t think he’s had a better season than this AAAAAAND he’s managed to get through it without being suspended – despite the rumbling about corking-gate. I mean, just look at those numbers – 12 games over 30 touches, only three under 25. He’s right under the umpires nose, his use with both feet is as good as anyone’s and he is a hard ball specialist. Loves a chirp, but he has form as far as the umpires are concerned.
DC: Sigh… Everything in me wants to argue the Sam Mitchell call, but it makes too much sense. Mitchell always polls well, but seems to have battled injury or suspension whenever he could have been a serious contender. He’s arguably just as important now to the Hawks as ever before. I don’t think he’ll win, but he makes a really good place bet at $2.80 with CrownBet.com.au.
MR: Mate, that $2.80 looks better than bank interest.
DC: My man is Danger. Patrick Dangerfield.
MR: Danger will have no one taking votes off him.
DC: This will be the summer of Danger. The Adelaide icon that is about to break the heart of a whole state. He’s great value in a market without Fyfe at $4.75 and $7 with Fyfe in.
MR: His numbers don’t stack up for mine, Dom.
DC: Im calling this the holy trinity of Adelaide heartbreak:
– Danger wins their best and fairest.
– Danger wins Brownlow
– Danger leaves Adelaide
MR: … For Hawthorn.
DC: We all know he’s going to Geelong.
MR: Dom, he hasn’t cracked 30 disposals since Round 17.
DC: He kicks goals, he polls in games when you would never expect him to and the media and footy world salivated over his every possession in 2015. The whole world was watching and he had his best season yet. He’ll come late at Fyfe – I think it will come down to the last round.
MR: I love him, but I’m still not seeing it, I reckon he’s too short. I’d want double figures. I’m more bullish on Swan Daniel Hannebery at $10 with Williamhill.com.au. What a monster season he’s had. And he’s only got Josh Kennedy and the odd decent game from Lance Franklin nicking votes.
MR: He had 13 games over 30 including a 39, 40 and 42. There’s nine votes there. He’s had a massive season, yet we’ve heard nothing about him. I don’t like that. Too much focus on Buddy and Adam Goodes up there. Do you reckon Kennedy would be a superstar if he played in Melbourne?
DC: You’re right, you’ve just bloody scared me about Hannebery. Don’t forget he won the coach’s MVP award too. Tucked away secretly getting best on grounds in games only 14 people were watching.
DC: Goldstein is the interesting one in the market.
MR: He had, what, eight million hitouts this year?
DC: Any educated football pundit will tell you that Goldy has put together one of the best seasons from a ruck man we’ve seen in the last couple of decades. But will the umpires notice? Ruck man haven’t polled well in the Brownlow for a very long time – it wasn’t long ago when they were winning it all the time. If the umpires caught on to the Goldstein hype early, he is every chance and very good value.
Can Priddis go back-to-back?
MR: What about our man Priddis from last year? We haven’t mentioned him, but he’s $5.25 second fave with Williamhill.com.au
DC: West Coast won more games this year, but had more contributors – he’ll still poll well, but I think Andrew Gaff and a few others will steal votes off him – and that’s the reason the Eagles could be playing in an unlikely Grand Final next Saturday. They’re so much more even this season.
DC: I feel like he was the beneficiary of the perfect storm last year. Ablett getting injured, no one taking votes off him, his luscious locks standing out to the umpires. This year, Luke Shuey has had a monster, Nic Naitanui ($201 with WilliamHill.com.au) has probably been the second or third best ruck man of the season and even the Coleman Medalist Josh Kennedy ($1001 with Sportsbet.com.a) will steal some votes from all the goals he booted.
Secret Brownlow smokeys
DC: Who’s your secret smokey? The bet you’re not telling anyone about? (until they read this).
MR: Ok, if I tell you this I have to kill you, but my other smokey is the bloke with the tatts at Richmond. He’s put together a huge year, averages 26 disposals, a tick over a goal and nearly five marks, Is in every thing Richmond does. Has more impact than captain Trent Cotchin ($67 with CrownBet.com.au) and has been more consistent than Brett Deledio, who was suspended. But at $51 with WilliamHill.com.au, if you love an outsider, you could do far worse than Dustin Martin.
DC: Sigh… Dusty! I love him – wish he was a Pie. He kicks goals and is deadly by himself. A good bet would be to back him to poll more than Cotchin.
MR: I reckon he will poll the most votes at Richmond.
DC: He’ll poll well this year in a Tigers team that relies HEAVILY on their three good players
Final Brownlow bets for 2015
DC: Right, so who are we backing?
MR: Well I’m going with a head and heart pick, my man Sammy Mitchell. I’m ashamed to say it, but I used to be a massive critic of Sam’s disposal. I reckon he butchered it. Now he’s as good as any one and his ball use is probably our single most important individual weapon. I think he’s had a massive year and, because the Hawks midfield is so even, he’s the only real constant under the umpires nose. If he doesn’t win, he will go very close. How about you mate? Gonna to your dough and stick with Danger?
DC: Do my dough? Please. Yep, Danger’s my man. He doesn’t have to have a lot of possessions to win Brownlow votes. He’s a cut above anyone at Adelaide. I think he’ll poll a lot of best on grounds in Crows wins and often stands out in their losses. AND, it further adds to the drama of trade week.
DC: The beach is calling me, I’m off!
MR: Oi, hang on, what about your flag tip?
DC: I hate this, but I think it’s the Hawks at $2.60 with Sportsbet.com.au. They were the best team entering the finals and momentum has swung their way again after thumping Adelaide. Freo ($4.75 with Sportsbet.com.au) will be tougher, but, even in Perth, they’re not unbeatable and their form really hasn’t really been great. The Swans nearly knocked them over in the qualifier with half a side – and then they went and lost to North in Sydney. The only other worry is West Coast at $2.50 with Sportsbet.com.au. I’m loathe to ask this, but who do you think will win, Mike?
MR: You really think I’m tipping anyone but my Hawks? What, we’ve beaten Freo in seven of the past eight, They’ll kick 70, we’ll kick 100. And then who is gonna beat us on the MCG. I’m allowed to be confident, we’ve gone back to back. The three peat is our destiny.
2015 AFL Brownlow market
Nathan Fyfe ($2)
Matt Priddis ($4.50)
Patrick Dangerfield ($8)
Daniel Hannebery ($10)
Sam Mitchell ($11)
Todd Goldstein ($14)
Josh P. Kennedy ($21)
Andrew Gaff ($21)
Dustin Martin ($51)
Scott Pendlebury ($51)
David Mundy ($51)
2015 AFL Premiership market
West Coast Eagles ($2.50)
North Melbourne ($12)
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